本周热点前瞻2026-01-19

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including domestic and international economic data, policy announcements, and speeches by important figures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This week's key concerns - On January 19th at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 national economic operation [2][4]. - On January 20th at 09:00, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for January 20th will be announced, expected to remain unchanged [2][8]. - On January 22nd at 21:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the US GDP in Q3 2025 [2][12]. - On January 22nd at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce the PCE price index for November 2025 [2][14]. This week's hot - spot preview - January 19th - The monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities will be released at 09:30, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [3]. - The press conference on the 2025 national economic operation will be held at 10:00. Expected Q4 GDP growth in 2025 is 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth is expected to be 5.1% [4]. - The World Economic Forum's 2026 annual meeting will be held from January 19th to 23rd, with leaders from over 130 countries participating. Vice - Premier He Lifeng and President Trump will attend [5]. - January 20th - The 1 - year LPR is expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year or more LPR is expected to be 3.50%, remaining unchanged from the previous value. If so, it will have a neutral impact on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [8]. - January 21st - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 10:00, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [9]. - The IEA will release the monthly crude oil market report at 17:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [10]. - President Trump will give a speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting at 21:00, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [11]. - January 22nd - The final value of the US Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly rate is expected to be 4.3% [12]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 12th is expected to be 200,000. A slight increase may mildly suppress the price increase of industrial product futures (except gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) but help the price increase of precious metal futures [13]. - The annual rate of the US PCE price index in November 2025 is expected to be 2.8%, and the core PCE price index annual rate is also expected to be 2.8% [14]. - The monthly rate of US personal income in November 2025 is expected to be 0.2% [15]. - January 23rd - If the EIA crude oil inventory continues to increase in the week ending January 16th, it will suppress the price increase of crude oil and related closing futures [16]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep the policy benchmark interest rate at 0.75% [17]. - The preliminary value of the euro - area SPGI manufacturing PMI in January is expected to be 49 [18]. - The preliminary value of the euro - area consumer confidence index in January is expected to be - 12.5 [19]. - If the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in January is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly help the price increase of industrial product futures (except gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) but suppress the price of precious metal futures [20]. - January 24th - The market prices of important means of production in the circulation field in mid - January will be announced, covering 9 categories and 50 kinds of products [21].