利率债周报：债市整体回暖，长债收益率明显下行-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rebounded, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield approached 1.90%, attracting more allocation buyers. The stock market cooled due to regulatory measures on margin trading, and the central bank announced a structural interest rate cut, leading to a generally strong bond market with declining long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields also declined, with a larger decline than long - term yields, steepening the yield curve [2]. - This week (the week of January 19), the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the Q4 2025 economic growth rate continued to decline, factors such as stable employment, rising prices, policy optimizations, and expected export growth in Q1 2026 suggest a rebound in GDP growth. With no clear incremental drivers, the bond market will continue to oscillate. The stock market's "spring rally" expectation may divert funds from the bond market, and the tax - payment month in January will put pressure on the capital market, but the central bank is expected to maintain liquidity. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.80% and 1.90% [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review - Secondary Market: The bond market rebounded last week, with significantly declining long - term bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract rose 0.27% for the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3.58bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped 4.63bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - Primary Market: 44 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 14 from the previous week. The issuance volume was 4516 billion yuan, a decrease of 3116 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1925 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 5417 billion yuan. The issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds all decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable, with an average subscription multiple of 3.53 for Treasury bonds, 3.92 for policy - bank bonds, and 19.54 for local government bonds [16][17]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - December Import and Export Data: In December 2025, exports in US dollars increased 6.6% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points from November. The full - year export growth was 5.5%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous year. Imports in December increased 5.7% year - on - year, accelerating by 3.8 percentage points from November, and the full - year import growth was 0.0%, 1.0 percentage point lower than the previous year. The strong export growth was due to external demand, trade transfer, and growth in chip and car exports. The import growth was driven by export growth and increased oil import demand [19]. - December Financial Data: In December 2025, new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan, 800 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The new social financing scale was 22075 billion yuan, 6462 billion yuan less than the same period last year. At the end of December, M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year, decelerating by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The decrease in new loans was "strong in enterprises, weak in residents," and the decrease in social financing was mainly due to government bond financing [19]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Production: High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. The blast furnace operating rate and daily hot - metal output declined, while the asphalt plant operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased [22]. - Demand: The BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased [22]. - Prices: Pork prices continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased, including copper, oil, and rebar [22]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net open - market capital injection was 11128 billion yuan last week [31]. - R007 and DR007 both declined. The issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated upward. The 3M national - share direct - discount rate continued to rise. The volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio first decreased then increased, with an overall decline [32][35][36].