银河期货油脂日报-20260119

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Fats and Oils Daily Report [1][5][12][17] - Report date: January 19, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - Soybean oil: The 2605 closing price was 7996, down 20. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8516, 8566, and 8386 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - Palm oil: The 2605 closing price was 8648, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8618, 8628, and 8768 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -20, and 120 respectively, with no change [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The 2605 closing price was 8902, down 161. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9552, 9502. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 650, and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread Closing Prices - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 120, down 10 [2]. - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 26, up 14 [2]. - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: -21, down 74 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - Y - P 05 contract: -652, up 6 [2]. - OI - Y 05 contract: 906, no change in the reported movement [2]. - OI - P 05 contract: 254, down 135 [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: 2.93, down 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - 24 - degree palm oil: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -177, with a CNF price of 1057 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1133, with an FOB price of 1025 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons) - Soybean oil: 72.7 this week, 102.5 last week, 108.1 last year [2]. - Palm oil: 73.6 this week, 48.2 last year [2]. - Rapeseed oil: 25.1 this week, 27.3 last week, 50.6 last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian canola growers, but key details need to be clarified. There is hope for improved market access after months of interruption. Ross Burtnak welcomes the potential reduction of canola seed tariffs and the cancellation of rapeseed meal tariffs, but is unsure about canola oil and needs further information [4]. Domestic Market - Palm oil: As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the national key - area commercial inventory was 74.61 tons, up 1.01 tons (1.37%) from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the same period historically. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 200. There was a reported purchase of 1 ship of palm oil. The basis is stable. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver, with slow de - stocking expected under high inventory, and the high inventory will persist. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][6]. - Soybean oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 tons, with an operating rate of 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory was 96.33 tons, down 6.18 tons (6.03%) from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period historically. The basis is stable. Downstream demand has no bright spots. As soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines, the inventory may slightly decrease, but overall supply is sufficient. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - Rapeseed oil: Due to the improvement in China - Canada relations, rapeseed from Canada is expected to enter the domestic market, and the rapeseed oil futures price fell by more than 1% today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.1 tons, down 2.2 tons from last week, at a neutral level in the same period historically, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote is stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1100. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are still holding prices. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may cause the rapeseed oil market to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the time needed for rapeseed purchases to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel final plan in March, which is positive for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the decline of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: In the short - term, the fats and oils market fluctuates with increased volatility, but there are many uncertain factors and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10]. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis of different oils, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][18][22]