银河期货花生日报-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the futures price of peanuts continuing to fluctuate at the bottom. The market is trading on the low import cost of Senegalese peanuts, but the cost of warehouse receipts is still expected to be relatively high. The 05 peanut contract will fluctuate at the bottom, and the supply of oil peanuts is still abundant [3][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Disk: PK604 closed at 7842, up 36 or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 28,969 (up 1.48%) and an open interest of 29,326 (down 2.35%); PK610 closed at 8206, up 34 or 0.41%, with a trading volume of 174 (down 45.79%) and an open interest of 2,764 (up 1.10%); PK601 data was invalid [1]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with price changes of 0, -400, and -400. The basis was -442, 158, and 158. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3100, 14320, and 8380 respectively, with no price changes. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600 with no change [1]. - Spreads: The PK04 - PK10 spread was -364, up 2 [1]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut Prices: Peanut prices in Henan were stable, while those in Northeast China were relatively strong. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.55 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Junan, Shandong was 3.5 yuan/jin, stable. The import prices of Sudanese refined peanuts, Brazilian new peanuts, and Indian specification peanuts were stable [3]. - Peanut Oil and By - products: The purchase prices of some peanut oil mills were stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7780 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14300 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 3090 yuan/ton, and the short - term price of peanut meal was relatively strong, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [3][4]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Single - sided: Go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract when the price is low [7]. - Calendar Spread: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option when the price is high [9]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures showing the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][17][19].