银河期货航运日报-20260119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market has been in a weak and volatile state recently, with the market continuously debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is in the process of reaching its peak and then falling back. Although the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend. The 04 contract shows a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent Q1 rush shipment intensity. The spot settlement price remains high, mainly because most ships were delayed in January, and it is expected that the index will gradually decline in the future [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged, and attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. From a fundamental perspective, the cargo volume is gradually entering the range of reaching its peak and then falling back. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 ports in Northern Europe in January, February, and March is 303,100 TEU, 253,000 TEU, and 268,800 TEU respectively, with little overall change compared to last week. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates gradually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities from April 1st, a phased rush shipment is expected, but there are still differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is still suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the overall resumption of navigation in the European line is expected to be difficult in the first half of the year [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment. For arbitrage, it is advisable to enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - Futures Contracts: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,714.3, 1,132.2, 1,318.0, 1,459.0, 1,054.1, and 1,300.0 respectively, with changes of +3.8 (+0.22%), +11.2 (+1.00%), +6.8 (+0.52%), - 6.6 (-0.45%), - 1.0 (-0.09%), and +10.0 (+0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 1,999.0, 30,559.0, 2,329.0, 121.0, 1,410, and 40 respectively, with changes of - 17.84%, - 38.53%, - 43.70%, - 72.99%, - 34.42%, and - 38.46% respectively. The open interests were 6,439.0, 41,888.0, 4,200.0, 1,366.0, 8,186, and 122 respectively, with changes of - 15.03%, - 1.75%, +11.11%, - 1.37%, +3.12%, and +1.67% respectively [3]. - Monthly Spread Structure: For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 582, with a change of - 7.4; the spread of EC04 - EC06 was - 186, with a change of +4.4 [3]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - Weekly Container Freight Rates: The SCFIS European line index was 1,954.19, with a week - on - week change of - 0.11% and a year - on - year change of - 29.89%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1,305.27, with a week - on - week change of - 1.41% and a year - on - year change of - 46.68%. Different routes of the SCFI also showed various changes, such as the Shanghai - Europe route at 1,676 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week change of - 2.50% and a year - on - year change of - 41.21% [3]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 59.46 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.32% and a year - on - year change of - 23.68%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 63.44 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.36% and a year - on - year change of - 20.7% [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is at the peak - to - decline stage, and the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline but is difficult to reverse the trend. The 04 contract shows a discount. The spot settlement price is high because of ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged. The cargo volume is reaching its peak and then falling back. The supply of shipping capacity has little change. From a seasonal perspective, the off - season is from February to March, but the export tax rebate cancellation policy may lead to a phased rush shipment. There are differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the large - scale resumption of the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [6]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment [7]. - Arbitrage: Enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada will reduce tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a 6.1% most - favored - nation tariff rate, and the quota will increase annually [10]. - The US is preparing for an attack on Iran [11]. - US President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US from February 1st, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% from June 1st until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached. The EU will hold an emergency meeting, and some EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to the EU [11][12].