南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：东南亚降雨有限，产区进一步面临干旱风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, indicating that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited. The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and March. Some regions in Indonesia may also face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March. Short - term lack of rainfall and persistent poor soil humidity in some areas may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Weather Forecast - El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index: As of the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained positive, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon. As of early 2026, its intensity has been weak, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has not shown significant deviations, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, suggesting that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - Weekly Weather: This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. The Malay Peninsula has almost no precipitation, with only sporadic rainfall in East Malaysia. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited [1]. - Soil Humidity: The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and expand to the entire Malay Peninsula in March. In Sabah and Sarawak, rainfall is sufficient, and soil humidity is good. In Indonesia, although most areas have received rainfall, the amounts are lower than the same period last year. Soil humidity in Riau, Central Kalimantan, and North Sumatra is decreasing, and these regions may face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March [2]. Regional Palm Oil Production Areas Indonesia - Jambi: Rainfall shows a downward trend, but soil humidity is good, and there is currently no drought disturbance [25]. - West Kalimantan: Rainfall decreases towards the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil humidity [29]. - Central Kalimantan: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil humidity may decline [37]. - East Kalimantan: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [42]. - Riau: Rainfall increase is insufficient, and soil humidity is decreasing [50]. - South Sumatra: Rainfall is rising, and soil humidity is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [57]. - North Sumatra: Rainfall was limited in January, and soil humidity is decreasing [63]. Malaysia - Johor: There is almost no precipitation, and soil humidity may decline [71]. - Pahang: Rainfall has returned to a lower level, and the increase in soil humidity is insufficient [77]. - Perak: Rainfall at the beginning of the year is decreasing, and soil humidity is also decreasing [84]. - Sabah: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90]. - Sarawak: Rainfall is adequate, and soil humidity remains at a relatively high level in recent years [96].