环保行业跟踪周报：【伟明】镍价上涨&出海、【赛恩斯】商业航天遗珠，重视SAF扩产中废油脂稀缺资源

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as the only viable solution for aviation decarbonization, highlighting the scarcity and value enhancement of waste oil resources during the SAF expansion cycle [14][15] - The environmental protection sector is expected to experience significant growth driven by policy support and market dynamics, particularly in solid waste management and new pollution control technologies [12][20] Industry Trends - The 2026 ecological and environmental work conference set the tone for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on source governance and modern monitoring to drive industry upgrades [10][11] - The SAF market is projected to see a substantial increase in demand, with the EU mandating a gradual increase in SAF blending ratios from 2% in 2025 to 70% by 2050, leading to a forecasted demand of 3,662 million tons by 2050 [15][16] - The report notes that the domestic supply of waste oil is limited, with only about 400 million tons being utilized annually out of a theoretical production of 1,200 million tons, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance [16][18] Company Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - Huanlan Environment: Benefiting from overseas expansion and high nickel prices [4] - Longjing Environmental Protection: Focused on green electricity storage and mining equipment [22] - Green Power: Positioned for growth in the renewable energy sector [20] - Sains: Engaged in heavy metal pollution control and new business in resource recovery [4] - Companies to watch include Dayu Water and Lian Tai Environmental Protection, which are expected to benefit from market reforms and cash flow improvements [4][21] Market Performance - The report indicates that the environmental protection sector is expected to outperform the broader market, with significant growth in the sales of new energy sanitation vehicles projected to increase by 70.9% in 2025 [26][32] - The report highlights the increasing penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles, which is expected to reach 21.11% in 2025, up from previous years [26][30] Investment Strategy - The report outlines a three-pronged investment strategy focusing on: 1. Value and Growth Resonance: Emphasizing the importance of market-driven improvements and operational efficiency [20] 2. Quality Growth: Targeting companies with strong growth potential in the second curve and downstream sectors [22] 3. Carbon Neutrality Drive: Highlighting the importance of clean energy and recycling in achieving carbon reduction goals [24]