大类资产运行周报（20260112-20260116）：美国通胀数据符合预期权益资产走势分化-20260119

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January 12th to January 16th, the US December CPI year - on - year growth rate met expectations and remained the same as the previous value. Global geopolitical risks continued to impact the market. The US dollar index rose weekly. Stocks and commodities performed strongly, while the bond market declined. In terms of the US dollar, commodities > stocks > bonds. In the domestic market, the stock market was divided, and the bond market and commodities rose weekly. Commodities > bonds > stocks. Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes [5][8][19]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Major Asset Performance - Global Stock Market: From January 12th to January 16th, market sentiment was relatively cautious. Trump called for setting a 10% credit card interest rate cap starting from January 20, 2026, pressuring US stocks. Most global stock markets rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 2.75% weekly and 5.62% year - to - date, while the MSCI US fell 0.38% weekly but rose 1.39% year - to - date [10][13][14]. - Global Bond Market: Recently, most Fed officials' statements were hawkish, cooling market expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 6BP to 4.24% weekly. The bond market was weak, and globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. - Global Foreign Exchange Market: From January 12th to January 16th, data such as the US November retail sales month - on - month growth rate were good, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was volatile and strong. The US dollar index rose 0.23% weekly [16][17]. - Global Commodity Market: Geopolitical factors supported the weekly rise of international oil prices. Precious metal prices rose, while most non - ferrous metal and agricultural product prices fell. International silver prices rose significantly [17]. Domestic Major Asset Performance - Domestic Stock Market: Market risk appetite declined. Most major broad - based A - share indices rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks was weak. Computer and electronics sectors led in gains, while the military and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% weekly [20][22]. - Domestic Bond Market: From January 12th to January 16th, the central bank's net open - market operations injected 111.28 billion yuan. The capital market fluctuated, and the bond market was strong weekly. Overall, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [23]. - Domestic Commodity Market: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led in gains. For example, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 9.41% weekly [24][25]. Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors may still change in the short - term, significantly affecting the prices of major asset classes. It is necessary to pay attention to their subsequent changes [4][26].