有色日报：有色高开后震荡运行-20260119

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals dated January 19, 2026 [5] - The report focuses on the performance and analysis of copper, aluminum, and nickel futures [6][7][8] Group 2: Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher and maintained a narrow - range oscillation during the day, with little change in the position volume. Macro - level factors such as the rising expectation of European and American tariffs and the rise of gold and silver pushed up the early - morning opening of non - ferrous metals. At the industrial level, as copper prices declined, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark [6] Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher, and the main contract price oscillated narrowly around the 24,000 - yuan mark. At the industrial level, SMM reported that the newly - invested production capacity of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad continued to increase, and the daily output increased steadily. However, the demand side was suppressed by high aluminum prices, and the wait - and - see atmosphere was strong. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 - yuan mark [7] Nickel - Today, Shanghai nickel opened higher and oscillated narrowly during the day. At the industrial level, the expectation of a contraction in the Indonesian ore end continued to ferment, providing support for the futures price. The pattern of strong expectation and weak reality in the industry remained unchanged. Technically, the nickel price rebounded after reaching the bottom in the short term, and attention could be continuously paid to the support at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8] Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - At the industry seminar in January 2026, Morgan Stanley reiterated that AI infrastructure is the "super - engine" of copper demand. It is expected that the global data center's copper consumption will reach 740,000 tons in 2026. Due to the slow increase in production of traditional mines, scrap copper recycling is regarded as the key to filling this increment. It is expected that the competition for high - purity scrap copper such as stripped wires and cables will intensify in the second half of 2026. In mid - January 2026, the LME copper price fell from the historical high of $13,000 per ton. Citi analysts pointed out that $13,000 is a key "trigger price", which has significantly stimulated global scrap copper recycling and substitution effects. With a large amount of scrap copper flowing into the market, the extremely tight spot supply has been relieved, forcing speculative funds to take profits, and the market has entered a high - level oscillation and washing - out stage [10] Aluminum - Citi raised the three - month target price of aluminum to $3,400 per ton. Citi believes that the aluminum price is starting a structural upward trend. Multiple favorable factors in the macro - environment and fundamentals have made investors reflect more medium - term bullish expectations in the short - term price in advance. The aluminum price has exceeded the previous target, indicating strong capital inflows and the strengthening of the overall non - ferrous metal market. Citi believes that there is still room for the aluminum price to rise further, but due to the path - dependence of the market and the lag effect of physical indicators, it remains cautious about the slope and speed of the upward trend, meaning there is still a risk of a phased correction [11] Nickel - On January 19, from the supply side, the upstream quotation remained at 1,050 - 1,100 yuan per nickel point, and some iron plants were still relatively strong. From the demand side, most downstream steel mills were cautious in purchasing, and a small number of intended prices still remained at 1,020 - 1,030 yuan per nickel point delivered to the factory. Overall, the price of high - nickel pig iron was relatively firm, and the upstream and downstream prices were still in a game [12] Group 4: Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16][18][19][21] Aluminum - The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29][31][33][35] Nickel - The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41][43][45][47]