Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current pig price is still at the bottom of the bear - market cycle of the pig cycle. Considering the slight de - stocking of the breeding sow inventory in the fourth quarter of 2025, the inflection point of the pig slaughter volume is expected to appear around the middle of 2026. The pig slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and there is a high probability that the pig price will hit the bottom again after the Spring Festival due to the off - season demand [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Pig Slaughter - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million heads, an increase of 17.16 million heads or 2.4% compared with the previous year. The growth rate of pig slaughter was further expanded compared with the first three quarters (in the first three quarters, the national pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads or 1.8%). The pig slaughter volume in 2025 was the second - highest in the past 10 years, but lower than that in 2023. The continuous release of the pig slaughter pressure in 2025 led to the pig price falling to the historical low range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg in the second half of the year [2][3] Pork Production - In 2025, the pork production was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons or 4.1%, reaching a record high. The annual growth rate of pork production was also further expanded compared with that in the first three quarters (in the first three quarters, the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 3.0%). The year - on - year growth rate of pork production in 2025 was higher than the growth rate of pig slaughter volume, mainly because the pig slaughter weight remained at a high level throughout 2025 [2][4][5] Pig Inventory - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, an increase of 2.24 million heads or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. This was mainly due to the continuous recovery of the breeding sow population in the previous period, which led to an upward trend in the pig slaughter volume. It is expected that the medium - term pig inventory will still be at a relatively high level [3][5] Breeding Sow Inventory - At the end of 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 1.16 million heads or 2.9%, and it was currently 101.6% of the normal reserve. The de - stocking of the breeding sow inventory accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2025, benefiting from the national advocacy of anti - involution in the pig industry and the further expansion of the industry's loss [3]
统计局四季度生猪数据点评
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-01-19 10:35