银行行业月报：结构性降息 社融增速小幅回落
Wanlian Securities·2026-01-19 10:24

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decline in the growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.3% year-on-year as of December, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [6][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in financing between households and enterprises, with household loans decreasing by 916 billion yuan in December, while enterprise loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan [15][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates on January 15, 2026, indicating a focus on maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments [20][4]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds [9][6]. - The total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [9][6]. Loan Data - As of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [14][3]. - The report notes that short-term loans for households decreased by 1.023 trillion yuan, while medium- to long-term loans increased by 100 billion yuan [15][10]. Monetary Aggregates - M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while M1's growth rate was 3.8%, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [19][4]. - New RMB deposits in December amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [19][4]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, supported by strong risk compensation capabilities [20][4]. - The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term capital will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which will help solidify the valuation floor [20][4].