有色金属日报-20260119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Carbonate Lithium: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market still needs to reduce volume, and there is still some potential in the current volume and price. The market is highly concerned about the geopolitical situation. The domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". It is recommended to continue holding the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. - The overseas macro uncertainty is strong, and the capital sentiment fluctuates rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 24,000 yuan waiting for the driving force. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the market activity is not high. The alumina balance continues to be in a significant surplus, and it is advisable to participate in short - selling when the basis is low [2]. - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is still limited, and the spot trading is weak. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment, and the long - position thinking is continued [6]. - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - and short - sides have different focuses. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly, and it is advisable to hold the high - level sold call options [7]. - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak. The overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. - The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. Although the cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, the upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillates around 100,000. The domestic social inventory has increased to 329,400 tons, and after the delivery and month - change of the 2601 contract, the domestic spot copper is quoted at a discount. The domestic refined copper output in January is expected to pick up month - on - month, and the domestic copper market is mainly "supply exceeds demand". Hold the option combination of selling call options with an exercise price of 104,000 and buying put options with an exercise price of 98,000 [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 160 yuan, - 290 yuan, and 130 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods has recovered to around 100 yuan, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods have each increased by 13,000 tons. The casting aluminum alloy follows the Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate, and the waste aluminum is still in short supply. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and the balance is in a significant surplus. When the basis is low, participate in short - selling [2]. Zinc - The zinc price has回调, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the spot trading is weak. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillates at a low level, and the transfer between the internal and external zinc markets is not smooth. The high price has an obvious negative feedback on the consumption end. The short - term support is seen at 24,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short - sell at high levels [3]. Aluminum - The import window of aluminum continues to be open, the LME aluminum inventory has dropped to 206,000 tons, and both the internal and external markets are in a low - level consolidation under oversupply. The supply - side pressure of lead increases in late January, but the lead concentrate is still tight, and the lower support of Shanghai lead is seen at 17,000 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level, and the stainless - steel traditional consumption season is off - season. The negative feedback risk is accumulating, but in the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The nickel inventory has increased by 2500 tons to 63,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 10,000 tons to 844,000 tons. Continue the long - position thinking [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to decline with position reduction. The long - side focuses on factors such as tight ore supply, while the short - side focuses on the reality of restricted demand under high prices. The internal and external explicit inventories of tin have increased significantly. Hold the high - level sold call options [7]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium fluctuates weakly. The downstream acceptance of high prices is generally weak, and the overall inventory reduction speed has slowed down significantly. The short - term uncertainty is extremely strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang large factories plan to reduce production by 50% at the end of the month, affecting the monthly output by more than 60,000 tons. In February, the demand for downstream polysilicon and organic silicon continues to decline, but the decline range is limited month - on - month. The industrial silicon is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the breakthrough at 9000 yuan/degree on the disk and whether the production reduction expectation of large factories is repeated [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk maintains fluctuations. The cancellation of export tax rebates is beneficial to short - term demand, and leading polysilicon enterprises plan to reduce production. The January production plan has been revised down to 103,000 tons. The N - type re - feed material price is firm, with a slight increase to 54,850 yuan/ton. The upward movement of the disk is still under pressure, and it should be participated in cautiously [10].