每日核心期货品种分析-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on January 19, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends affected by various factors such as policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: The price of Shanghai copper declined. Although there is short - term demand slump, the copper fundamentals remain tight. With the decline in mining and smelting, and the continuous implementation of domestic stable - growth policies, the price is in a stage of correction [8][10]. - Silver and Gold: Shanghai silver and gold futures rose, with significant capital inflows into their relevant contracts [5][6]. - Tin: Shanghai tin futures fell by more than 5% [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: It showed a downward trend overall. Despite supply - side disturbances, the strong demand for exports keeps the overall situation strong, but one should be cautious about market sentiment [11]. - Iron Ore: It fell by nearly 3%, and there was significant capital outflow from its relevant contracts [5][6]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC+ maintained the production plan, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. With geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions, the price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][13]. - Asphalt: The supply is at a low level, and the demand will further slow down. Affected by the situation in Venezuela, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use the reverse spread strategy [14]. Chemicals - PP: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - Plastic: The开工 rate has increased, but the downstream demand is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - PVC: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. With the impact of export policies, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Others - Coking Coal: The price decline has slowed down. With the increase in winter storage, the market is expected to improve [20]. - Urea: The price declined. Although the supply is stable, the downstream procurement has not kept up with the futures price increase. With the approaching of the spring plowing season, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][22]. Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The performance of different stock index futures varied. The IF and IC contracts rose, while the IH contract fell slightly, and the IM contract rose slightly [5][6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year contract remained flat, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts declined [6].