棉花、棉纱日报-20260119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Cotton sales progress is fast, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, and downstream备货意愿 has increased, with textile mills starting to place orders gradually. The cotton price is supported by market bullish factors, but it has recently pulled back, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For trading strategies, it is recommended to consider building long positions on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices while keeping a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: CF01 contract closed at 15140 with an increase of 465, CF05 at 14545 with a decrease of 45, and CF09 at 14710 with a decrease of 35. CY01 was at 0 with a decrease of 20250, CY05 at 20570 with a decrease of 45, and CY09 at 0 with a decrease of 20675. Details of trading volume, open interest, and their changes are also provided [2] - Spot Market: CCIndex3128B was at 15880 yuan/ton with a decrease of 92, Cot A at 74.80 cents/pound, FC Index:M: to - port price at 72.29 with a decrease of 0.30, etc. [2] - Price Spread: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 595 with an increase of 510, 5 - 9 month spread was - 165 with a decrease of 10, etc. In yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 20570 with a decrease of 20205, etc. [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Brazil: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil is expected to remain dominant in the global cotton market. The total cotton output may decline slightly from the previous record - high year but will still be the second - highest in history. The planting area is expected to increase slightly by 0.7% to 2.1 million hectares, the yield per unit area is expected to decrease by 3.5%, and the total output will be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The domestic available supply is expected to be 6.77 million tons, an increase of 4.5%. Exports are expected to reach 3.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.98%, and domestic consumption is estimated to be 730,000 tons. As of December 2026, the ending inventory is expected to be 2.98 million tons, an increase of 6.07% compared to December 2025. As of January 6, the contract trading volume of 2025/26 cotton reached 621,520 tons, equivalent to 16% of the estimated national total output, and the pre - sales volume of 2026/27 cotton has reached at least 73,000 tons [4][5] - USA: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7896 million tons, accounting for 94.6% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton output, 8% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 94.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, and that of Pima cotton was 90.5%, 19% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 75.4%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.1%, 1.3 percentage points higher year - on - year [5] - China: On January 19, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1679 yuan/ton·km, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. It is expected to show a narrow - range overall fluctuation in the short term [6] Trading Logic - The cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream备货意愿 has increased. The cotton price is supported by market bullish factors, but it has recently pulled back, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton are still strong. It is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see. - Options: Wait - and - see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Domestic Market: The domestic cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with prices generally stable but weak market sentiment. Spinning mills are mainly focused on active sales and inventory digestion. Some spinning enterprises have received downstream restocking orders, but the scale and enthusiasm are lower than in previous years. Most spinning enterprises still face the pressure of insufficient orders. Downstream rigid - demand purchases are mainly for sporadic restocking, and the overall stocking intention is not strong [9] - Fabric Market: Cotton fabric traders are cautious in stocking, with general purchase and order - placing volumes, mainly small - batch orders. The orders of weaving factories are average, and although the local operating rate has slightly recovered, the overall operating rate is still at a low level. It is expected that some weaving factories will gradually start their holidays at the end of the month. The inventory of weaving factories is still at a high level, and they prioritize inventory reduction to recover funds [10] Third Part: Options - Option Contracts: For example, on January 19, 2026, the CF605C14600.CZC contract had a closing price of 334.00 with a decrease of 16.9%, an implied volatility of 13.3%, etc. - Volatility: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2%. - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13][15] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides figures such as the 1% tariff - based price spread between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [18][22][26][27]