山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Shanghai Gold's main contract rose 1.54%, Shanghai Silver's main contract rose 2.75%, Platinum's main contract fell 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract rose 0.64% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war - related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support expectations of interest - rate cuts [1]. - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries controlling Greenland has led to considerations of retaliation by EU countries, increasing geopolitical risks [1]. - The US CPI increase in December met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures increased. US employment growth almost stalled in December, and the unemployment rate decline alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased, and the labor market is in a stagnant state. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one potential rate cut next year. Powell stated that the Fed's interest - rate policy is in a good position to handle future economic trends. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 95%, and the next rate cut may occur in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly [1]. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen - energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short - term, high - level oscillations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4,601.10 per ounce, down $19.40 (- 0.42%) from the previous day and up $82.70 (1.83%) from the previous week. London gold was at $4,611.05 per ounce, up $0.20 (0.00%) from the previous day and up $117.20 (2.61%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1,051.80 yuan per gram, up 19.48 yuan (1.89%) from the previous day and up 25.52 yuan (2.49%) from the previous week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 12,292 lots. SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, down $2.27 (- 2.46%) from the previous day and up $10.16 (12.73%) from the previous week. London silver was at $90.80 per ounce, down $0.47 (- 0.51%) from the previous day and up $12.66 (16.20%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 23,189 yuan per kilogram, up 706 yuan (3.14%) from the previous day and up 2,244 yuan (10.71%) from the previous week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 2,613 lots. iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 274.89 tons (- 1.68%) [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (- 2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from the previous week. London platinum was at $2,208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $302 (15.84%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the GZEX closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from the previous week [7]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,821 per ounce, down $143 (- 7.28%) from the previous day and up $96 (5.57%) from the previous week. London palladium was at $1,837 per ounce, up $194 (10.56%) from the previous day and up $194 (11.81%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the GZEX closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (- 8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from the previous week [10]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [10]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points [11]. - The Fed's total assets are 6,632.72 billion US dollars, up 8.162 billion US dollars (0.00%) [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, up 0.03 (1.21%) [11]. - The US dollar index is 99.37, up 0.02 (0.02%) [11]. - Other economic data such as inflation, employment, real estate, consumption, and trade are also presented in detail in the report [11][13].