玻璃日报：短期震荡偏弱-20260119

Report Investment Rating - The short-term outlook for the glass industry is volatile and weak [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the short-term macro sentiment has slightly improved, the demand forecast for glass from the real estate sector continues to decline. It is expected that glass prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is advisable. Attention should be paid to macro policy changes and production line cold repairs [4] Market行情回顾 Summary Futures Market - The main glass futures contract weakened within the day. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands showed an open trumpet shape, indicating a short-term weakening trend. The intraday pressure was near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and support was near the previous low. Trading volume decreased by 257,000 lots from the previous day, while open interest increased by 30,993 lots. The intraday high was 1,115, the low was 1,065, and the closing price was 1,070, down 32 yuan/ton or 2.9% from the previous settlement price [1] Spot Market - In North China, the market was sluggish, with flexible transactions and individual prices down 10 yuan/ton. In East China, it was stable but weak, and shipments in Shandong were restricted by snow. In Central China, there was little change, and the wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In South China, a small number of prices were raised, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of -50 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data Summary Supply - As of January 15th, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0523 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.49%. There were no production line shutdowns or ignitions this week. One previously ignited production line started producing glass, and combined with the recovery of some production line loads, the daily output increased slightly [2] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week-on-week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes, or 4.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 20.89%. The equivalent inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and most regions are driven by sales policies, improved market sentiment, and favorable capacity reduction. The enterprise inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future [2] Demand - The average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week-on-week increase of 7.9% and a year-on-year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep-processing enterprises in the north and south are diverging. Orders in the south are slightly increasing, and some orders can last for more than 20 days, while orders in the north and central regions are declining [2] Profit - The weekly average profit of natural gas float glass was -164.40 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of coal gas float glass was -69.01 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of petroleum coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long-term losses in glass production lines are accelerating the exit of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still plans to cold repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real estate development investment and capital availability have both continued to decline year-on-year, and the completion and new construction of real estate projects are weak, with no improvement in real estate demand. Overall, although the short-term macro sentiment has slightly improved, the demand forecast for glass from the real estate sector continues to decline. It is expected that glass prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]