申万宏源研究晨会报告-20260119

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable and long-term approach to the A-share market, suggesting that the current market dynamics are influenced by increased risk appetite and inflow of incremental capital, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications [1][8] - It maintains a two-phase upward trend for the A-share market, with the first phase characterized by a strong structural market led by cyclical alpha and AI computing, while the second phase is expected to see a transition towards application-driven growth in the AI industry [2][8] Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of a "New Year Rally" with significant capital inflow and heightened risk appetite, although there are indications of potential short-term corrections due to excessive trading [1][8] - The report identifies a clear policy direction aimed at guiding the A-share market towards a stable and sustainable growth trajectory, which should be integrated into market assessments [1][8] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the technology sector is currently experiencing a high valuation phase, with some investment directions entering a period of high volatility. This could lead to quarterly adjustments if fundamental disruptions occur [2][8] - It notes that the performance of cyclical stocks remains promising, with opportunities in advanced manufacturing and the reversal of challenges faced by overseas supply chains [2][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings visibility as the market approaches a busy earnings forecast period, particularly those expected to report positive results [15][17] - It also recommends monitoring the automotive sector, especially companies like BYD and SAIC, which are expected to benefit from relaxed export tariffs and improved sales forecasts [15][17] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a cyclical improvement in the economy, driven by a combination of factors including the transition of household asset allocation towards equities and the visible enhancement of China's global influence [2][8] - It highlights the potential for a new upward phase in the latter half of 2026, supported by a cyclical recovery in fundamentals and advancements in technology sectors [2][8]