沪铜周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has experienced a short - term adjustment. The dollar index has strengthened recently, cooling the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, and the copper futures market has also corrected. The market's expectation of a copper supply shortage outside the US has eased, and the demand forecast has been significantly revised downwards, resulting in a temporary lack of growth momentum for copper. However, the copper fundamentals remain tight. Short - term weak demand does not represent the overall strong demand, and there is a downward trend in the mining and smelting sectors. With the continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, copper is mainly in a phased correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Macro - aspect: In December, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month as expected, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in April. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, and the dollar has strengthened recently. The domestic central bank has lowered the re - lending rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points since January 19. The annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year [2]. - Supply - aspect: Trump decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other key minerals. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits and weakening spot processing fees. Smelters plan to cut production this year. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [2]. - Demand - aspect: Downstream copper buyers have low enthusiasm, leading to a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales of new - energy vehicles from January 1 to 11 being 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are on holiday, and copper product buyers are cautious [2]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 105,650 yuan/ton, the low was 100,060 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 5.51%, and the range increase/decrease was - 0.63% [4]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of January 19, the average spot premium/discount in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 85 yuan/ton. Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot remains at a discount. With downstream enterprises about to enter the holiday period, procurement demand slows down, and it is expected to continue trading at a discount [9]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure - As of January 16, LME copper fell 0.5% during the week, closing at $12,925/ton, with a spot premium of $75/ton [14]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. It is expected that in December 2025, China will import 2.6 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, with an annual import volume of 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% and an expected increase of 2.094 million physical tons. The new collective - agreement negotiation at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile is at a standstill, and the strike continues to affect copper production [19]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - In November 2025, the scrap - copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.92%; from January to November, the cumulative scrap - copper import volume was 2.104 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. According to SMM data, the operating rate of recycled copper rods this week was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53% from last week. After the Shanghai copper price corrected last week, recycled - copper enterprises made low - price purchases to fulfill historical orders. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [24]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of January 16, the domestic spot rough - smelting fee (TC) was - 46.6 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.84 cents/pound, with TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19, Chinese copper - smelter representatives and international mining giant Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper - concentrate long - term processing fee (Benchmark) at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, a historic "zero" compared to $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/pound in 2025 [28]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In December, SMM's Chinese electrolytic - copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. From January to December, the cumulative production increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. After some smelters stopped production earlier, they gradually resumed production this month. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. According to customs data, in November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [32]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of November 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.2681 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous month [36]. 3.10 Sub - industry Production Forecast - Mysteel predicts that in January 2026, the开工 rate of sample copper - tube enterprises will slightly increase, with a production of about 147,500 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 63.66%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The expected production of domestic electrolytic copper foil is 108,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%. The expected copper - rod 开工 rate will drop to 51.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.62 percentage points [40]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power - generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the solar - power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind - power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%; the hydropower installed capacity was 440 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 3%; and the nuclear - power installed capacity was 60 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [44]. 3.12 Real - Estate and Infrastructure Data - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.58%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 880.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 44.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.24% [50]. 3.13 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data - In the new - energy passenger - vehicle sector, from January 1 to 11, retail sales were 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a significant 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. Since January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax has changed from exemption to half - collection. On December 30, the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade - ins in 2026" was issued, stating that the "trade - in" subsidies for heavy trucks and buses will continue, with the subsidy scope and standards remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy for passenger cars has changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, with the subsidy ceiling unchanged, and the subsidy amount for low - price cars has decreased, which will offset part of the decline caused by the increase in purchase tax [56]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of January 16, LME copper inventory increased by 4,600 tons to 143,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.83%. COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year increase of 465.67%. Trump's statement last week that he will temporarily not impose tariffs on other key minerals has postponed the collection of refined - copper tariffs, weakening the siphon effect on US copper, but COMEX copper inventory still increased. On January 15, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 117,500 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased as some warehouse goods left the port for export and a few enterprises imported through processing manuals. As of January 16, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%; the cathode - copper inventory was 213,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.26%, showing a significant inventory - accumulation trend [61][66].