Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-19 12:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in companies with performance certainty and those benefiting from export policies [1][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming earnings forecast period in late January, suggesting a market focus on companies with predictable performance, such as Qifeng Co. and Fuda Co. [3] - It notes the potential relaxation of tariffs on vehicle exports to the EU and Canada, which could positively impact wholesale sales expectations for companies like BYD, SAIC, and Xpeng [3] - The report highlights the strengthening market expectations for Tesla's Optimus V3 and the associated valuation potential in the robotics industry [3] - It indicates significant cost pressures in the domestic market, with raw material indices for traditional and new energy vehicles rising by 5.2% and 23.9% respectively since Q4 2025, urging caution regarding annual profit forecasts [3][13] Industry Updates - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in China dropped by 32% year-on-year in the first week of January, with a 42% decline compared to the previous month [3] - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 837.12 billion yuan for the week, reflecting a 31.14% increase week-on-week [3] - The automotive industry index rose by 0.49% for the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.57% [16] Market Conditions - The report identifies key events, including the potential cancellation of excessive tariffs by the EU and a new agreement with Canada allowing the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a 6.1% tariff [4][7] - It notes the positive sentiment from Silicon Valley investors regarding Tesla's Optimus V3, which is expected to have a transformative impact beyond the automotive sector [9] - The report outlines a diverse performance among companies, with notable earnings forecasts from firms like Dongli Xinke and Fute Technology, projecting significant year-on-year profit increases [10][11] Raw Material Price Trends - Since Q4 2025, raw material prices have risen significantly, with lithium carbonate increasing by 114.8% and cobalt by 35.8%, indicating substantial cost pressures for the industry [13][14] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of raw material price changes, highlighting the impact on both traditional and new energy vehicle production [14] Stock Performance - The report notes that 152 automotive stocks increased in value, while 117 declined, with the largest gainers being Aikelan and Jiaoyun Co. [22] - It highlights the automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio of 30.30, ranking it 18th among all sectors, indicating a moderate valuation level [19][21]