宏观与大宗商品周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week, capital markets advanced amidst fluctuations with divergent trends. Geopolitical tensions overseas continued to drive up investors' risk - aversion, pushing gold to a new record high, while the US stock market was desensitized to geopolitical issues and more focused on corporate earnings. Global stock markets generally rose, commodity trends diverged, A - shares fluctuated and diverged, and the BDI index dropped significantly. The US dollar regained strength, and the RMB remained stable and strong [5][10]. - The domestic bond market rebounded, stock indices fluctuated with mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergent patterns. The growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 6 falling. Precious metals remained strong, non - ferrous metals continued to rise, energy rebounded, and grains had a small increase, while other sectors declined, with agricultural products, black commodities, and chemicals leading the decline [5][16]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% with a probability of 95.4% in January, and there is still an expected 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][67]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Capital markets showed divergent trends. Overseas, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran) and the US's intention towards Greenland increased investors' risk - aversion, driving up gold prices. The US stock market focused on corporate earnings, with the VIX index rebounding and most risk assets rising. Global stocks generally rose, commodities diverged, A - shares fluctuated, and the BDI index dropped. The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB was stable. Commodity sectors also showed divergence, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals performing well, while black commodities and agricultural products were weak [5][10]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded, stock indices had mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergence. Growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 sub - indices rising and 6 falling [5][16]. Large - scale Assets - Overseas, geopolitical tensions led to a rise in gold prices due to increased risk - aversion. The US stock market was less affected by geopolitics and more focused on corporate earnings. Global stocks generally rose, commodities diverged, A - shares fluctuated, and the BDI index dropped. The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB was stable. Commodity sectors had divergent trends, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals strong, and black commodities and agricultural products weak [5][10]. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rebounded, stock indices had mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergence. Growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 sub - indices rising and 6 falling. Precious metals remained strong, non - ferrous metals continued to rise, energy rebounded, and grains had a small increase, while other sectors declined, with agricultural products, black commodities, and chemicals leading the decline [16]. Fund Flows - Last week, the commodity futures market saw a significant overall inflow of funds. The precious metals sector had the most obvious inflow, while the soft commodities sector had the most significant outflow [19]. Variety Performance - In the past week, most domestic major commodity futures declined. The top - rising commodity futures were Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and styrene. The top - falling ones were the shipping index, caustic soda, and palladium [22]. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index stopped falling and rebounded. The volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and the Nanhua Commodity Index both increased. Most commodity futures sectors saw an increase in volatility, with energy and grains having significant volatility reduction, and non - ferrous metals and soft commodities having notable volatility increases [25]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities had mixed results. The BDI index dropped significantly, the CRB index had a small decline, soybeans rebounded, corn rose sharply, copper fell, oil rose, and gold and silver both increased, with the gold - silver ratio reaching a new low [27][28]. - Domestically, the asphalt production rate rebounded from a low level, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates diverged, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated upwards [42]. Macroeconomic Logic - Stock indices fluctuated, corrected, and showed divergence, with little change in valuation. The risk premium ERP was at a one - year low. Growth stocks outperformed value - style stocks [30][31]. - Commodity price indices rose and then fell, and inflation expectations rebounded strongly [34]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between stocks and commodities and the price difference between domestic and international commodities were analyzed. Last week, stocks fluctuated and declined, commodities showed divergence, and the commodity - stock return difference generally increased. The Nanhua Commodity Index and the CRB Commodity Index both fell from high levels, with domestic - priced commodities weakening and international - priced commodities performing strongly, and the price difference between domestic and international commodities changed little [37][40]. - US Treasury yields rebounded across the board, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread rebounded from a low level, real interest rates were under pressure, and gold prices rose to a new high [50]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was strong, the Citi Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasuries widened significantly and then fluctuated within a narrow range [59]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in January remains unchanged at 95.4%, and the probability of a 25bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remains at 4.6%. The market expects 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][67]. China's 2025 Import and Export Data - In December 2025, China's exports were $357.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% (previous value 5.9%), and imports were $243.6 billion, with a growth rate of 5.7% (previous value 1.9%). The trade surplus was $114.14 billion (previous value $111.68 billion). For the whole year of 2025, exports grew by 5.5% (previous value 5.8%), imports had a growth rate of 0% (previous value 1%), and the trade surplus was $1.19 trillion (previous value $992.6 billion). Exports to ASEAN grew by 13.4%, to Europe by 8.4%, and to Japan by 3.5% year - on - year, while exports to the US dropped significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 20% [68]. China's 2025 Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year at constant prices. The added value of the primary industry was 933.47 billion yuan (up 3.9%), the secondary industry was 4,996.53 billion yuan (up 4.5%), and the tertiary industry was 8,088.79 billion yuan (up 5.4%). Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, 4.8% in the third quarter, and 4.5% in the fourth quarter. The fourth - quarter GDP had a 1.2% quarter - on - quarter growth [75]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 19): China's 2025 full - year GDP growth rate, 2025 full - year GDP total, December social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, December industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, Eurozone December CPI annual rate final value, Canada December CPI monthly rate, US stock market closed for one day [82]. - Tuesday (January 20): China's one - year loan prime rate as of January 20, Germany's December PPI monthly rate, UK's December unemployment rate, Eurozone's November seasonally - adjusted current account, Eurozone's January ZEW economic sentiment index, EU Commission President von der Leyen's speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting [82]. - Wednesday (January 21): UK's December CPI monthly rate, UK's December retail price index monthly rate, US's November building permit total, US's December pending home sales index monthly rate, IEA's monthly crude oil market report, US President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting [82]. - Thursday (January 22): US's API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16, Australia's December seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate, US's initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17, US's November core PCE price index annual rate, US's November personal spending monthly rate, US's November core PCE price index monthly rate, US's EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 16, European Central Bank's December monetary policy meeting minutes, Turkish Central Bank's interest rate decision [82]. - Friday (January 23): US's EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16, Japan's December core CPI annual rate, UK's December seasonally - adjusted retail sales monthly rate, Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's November retail sales monthly rate, US's January University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value, US's January one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and economic outlook report, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's monetary policy press conference [82].