PVC周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Under the stimulation of export tax rebate cancellation, the 03 - 05 contracts of PVC are expected to show a strong and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: The PVC开工率 decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the influence of plants like Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the output decline is currently limited, and the PVC开工率 has not changed much. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand from India is limited [4][18]. - Demand side: In winter, the downstream PVC开工率 decreased 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. The downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers resist high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [4]. - Export: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there has been a rush to export. Last week, PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing. Attention should be paid to the February quotation from Formosa Plastics in Taiwan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [25]. - Real estate: In 2025 from January to December, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas was still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion further decreased. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to rebound week - on - week but was still at the lowest level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [4][24]. - Macro - environment: In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The draft for comments on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi was released, and the Ministry of Finance pre - allocated the quotas for trade - in and "two - major" projects in 2026. The macro - environment was positive, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market [4]. 3.2 PVC Basis - The current basis for the 05 contract is - 253 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [13]. 3.3 PVC Operating Rate - Affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC weekly operating rate decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63%, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years [18]. 3.4 Real Estate Data - In 2025 from January to December, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased 13.0%. The new construction area of houses was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential houses was 428.3 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. - As of the week of January 18th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded 6.20% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [24]. 3.5 PVC Inventory - As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [25][26].