聚烯烃周报：冠通期货研究报告-20260119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and reduced downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently, with a higher plastic operating rate than PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 85% (neutral), while PP operating rate rose to around 81% (slightly below neutral). As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. The easing of the Iran situation led to a decline in crude oil prices. New production capacities have been put into operation for both PE and PP. With continuous decline in agricultural film and plastic weaving orders, and approaching the Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline. Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and they are expected to fluctuate in a range [3] Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to around 85% due to new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE, and is currently at a neutral level. PP operating rate increased by 2 percentage points to around 81% as maintenance devices like Jingbo Polyolefin Line 2 restarted, and is at a slightly below - neutral level [12] Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. The plastic - weaving operating rate of the main downstream of PP decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic - weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [18] Plastic Basis - The basis of the 05 contract rose to 135 yuan/ton due to the supplementary increase in spot prices, and is at a relatively low - neutral level [22] Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction has been good after the New Year's Day, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26]