化工日报-20260119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Styrene: Not specified - Propylene: Not specified - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - PVC: Not specified - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PX: Not specified - PTA: Not specified - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - Glass: Not specified - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows complex trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products face supply shortages, while others are affected by cost, demand, and policy factors [2][3][5] - There are risks such as demand shrinkage due to downstream profit pressure and supply - demand imbalance in the market, and at the same time, there are also potential investment opportunities in some products [2][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined, with tight supply in the short term and limited support from the demand side due to high raw material costs. There is a risk of demand shrinkage [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were volatile. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand has been pre - consumed, and the upward - driving force for supply - demand fundamentals is insufficient [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rose due to port de - stocking and refinery production cuts. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong [3] - Styrene futures rose. The market is in a tight - balance state, with expected port de - stocking, low enterprise inventory, and export support [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are expected to decline due to weak cost support and inventory accumulation. There may be investment opportunities in the second quarter, but it depends on downstream demand [5] - Ethylene glycol is affected by new domestic production and overseas shutdowns. There may be short - term improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip production has decreased, and the processing margin has improved, but there is still long - term capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Although there is port de - stocking, demand has decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile and stalemate. There is support from reduced imports in the first quarter [6] - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also risen. The short - term market may decline slightly, but it is likely to be strong within a range as agricultural demand starts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices weakened. Production capacity utilization has declined, and cost has increased. It is expected to reduce production capacity this year, and the price center may rise [7] - Caustic soda is in a weak state, with high inventory pressure. The industry is generally in a loss, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory pressure is still high, supply pressure is large, and downstream demand is weak. A high - short strategy is recommended [8] - Glass prices declined due to ignition plans. The industry is de - stocking, but there may be an increase in supply. The order situation is poor, and there may be seasonal inventory accumulation [8]