Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-19 12:27Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is the largest OTC manufacturer in China, with a strong brand presence and a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% from 2019 to 2024 [6][26] - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment ranks second in the industry, while the pharmaceutical distribution segment ranks third [6][65] - The company has a robust pipeline of acquisitions to expand its business scope, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine and healthcare products [7][38] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Limited is a leading integrated pharmaceutical company, covering manufacturing and distribution of pharmaceuticals, healthcare products, and medical devices [20] - The company has a significant market presence, with a market capitalization of HKD 285.23 billion and a closing price of HKD 4.54 as of January 16, 2026 [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 1,319 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [26] - The distribution business accounted for approximately 80% of total revenue, with distribution revenue of CNY 1,045 billion, growing by 2% [26] - The pharmaceutical business generated CNY 218 billion in revenue, increasing its share from 15% in 2019 to 17% in the first half of 2025 [26] Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The company produces 944 products, including traditional Chinese medicine, chemical drugs, biological products, and medical devices, covering a wide range of therapeutic areas [32] - The pharmaceutical business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2022 to 2024 [36] Pharmaceutical Distribution - The company’s distribution revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 1,100 billion, ranking third in the industry, behind China National Pharmaceutical Group and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [8][65] - The distribution model is evolving from traditional distribution to a dual approach of distribution and deep marketing [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for 2025-2027 is CNY 34.9 billion, CNY 37.6 billion, and CNY 40.5 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 4.0%, 7.9%, and 7.7% [9] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.7x for 2026, suggesting a market value of HKD 353 billion, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current market value [8] Key Assumptions - The pharmaceutical business is expected to grow at rates of 4.1%, 6.0%, and 6.5% from 2025 to 2027 [12] - The distribution business is projected to grow at rates of 2.6%, 5.0%, and 5.3% during the same period [12] - The retail business is anticipated to grow at rates of 11.8%, 12.0%, and 12.0% from 2025 to 2027 [12]