Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-19 12:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting the strong trend in nickel prices due to tightened supply expectations from Indonesia [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall performance of the metals sector has been strong, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [4]. - Key price movements show significant increases in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical factors and changes in monetary policy [3][20]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt remains robust, with prices for lithium compounds experiencing substantial increases [3][16]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 3.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.60 percentage points [4]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 6.86%, while aluminum decreased by 0.57%. Energy metals rose by 1.47%, and small metals increased by 4.31% [8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed varied changes: copper decreased by 1.50%, aluminum by 0.06%, while zinc increased by 1.76% and tin by 5.32% [12]. - Lithium prices surged, with lithium hydroxide and carbonate increasing by 12.14% and 12.32%, respectively [16]. Key Company Valuations - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold are highlighted for their strong earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Shagang [19]. Metal Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is under pressure, with domestic social inventory increasing to 321,000 tons, while demand from the wire and cable sector shows a slight recovery [33]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with production capacity constraints expected to support long-term price increases [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center is likely to shift upward, recommending investments in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry [3].