2026年中国投资展望：过弯加油：马年牛腾，东升西不落：政策利好有望超预期

Group 1 - The report highlights that after approximately 12 years of restructuring local government responsibilities, the most challenging phase has been overcome, providing a foundation for proactive fiscal, industrial, monetary, and credit policies, which are expected to exceed current market expectations by mid-2026 [4][10][14] - The core of economic activation lies in guiding high-net-worth funds into investment and consumption through moderate inflation and an active capital market, focusing on high-valuation industries such as technology manufacturing, biomedicine, and cultural entertainment [5][22] - The report emphasizes the significant growth potential in China's semiconductor and biomedicine sectors, which currently have market values of less than 1/10 and 1/40 of their U.S. counterparts, respectively [6][31] Group 2 - The report indicates that the strategic easing of U.S.-China relations is fostering internal momentum, while the global potential growth rate remains low, indicating significant room for expansion [7][8] - It notes that China contributes approximately 30% to global growth, yet its weight in the MSCI All Country World Index is less than 3%, suggesting a clear logic for asset allocation and revaluation of Chinese assets [8][9] - The forecast for China's core broad-based stock index is an expected increase of over 40% in 2026, driven by nearly 20% profit growth and a 20% valuation increase, with sectors like technology manufacturing and biomedicine expected to lead the rally [9][10] Group 3 - The report outlines that the government support has played a crucial role in the technological rise of countries like the U.S. and Japan, and that China's technology sector still shows significant gaps in revenue and profitability compared to the U.S. [6][31] - It discusses the importance of strategic industries as core pillars for capital and innovation, highlighting their high growth potential and low competition, which can attract substantial social capital [24][26] - The report identifies four key directions for strategic industries: technology manufacturing, biomedicine, medical insurance, and cultural entertainment, emphasizing the need for a collaborative approach between commercial insurance and industrial investment [26][30]