房地产行业周报（26/1/10-26/1/16）：换购住房个税优惠政策延续，商业用房首付比例下调-20260119

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three major trends expected in 2026: 1) The adjustment in the real estate market is likely nearing its end, with current price adjustments being relatively sufficient; 2) There are structural opportunities for "good houses" as the market enters a phase of differentiation, with a focus on high-quality residential developments; 3) The recovery of the Hong Kong property market is anticipated to continue, driven by multiple favorable factors [5][40]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.0%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) fell by 3.5% during the week [5][8]. - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were *ST Yangguang (+10.2%), Daming City (+8.8%), Tibet City Investment (+5.0%), Nandu Property (+4.7%), and Guangming Real Estate (+4.7%). The top five losers included Huaxia Happiness (-29.8%), ST Zhongdi (-16.7%), China Wuyi (-15.8%), Rongsheng Development (-13.9%), and Caixin Development (-11.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of January 10-16, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.45 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.3%, but a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 16, new housing transactions totaled 3 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 32.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.7% [16]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of January 10-16, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.16 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 4.9%, but a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [27]. - For January up to the week of January 16, second-hand housing transactions totaled 4.3 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 6.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [30]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly announced new policies to extend personal income tax incentives for residents purchasing new homes [40]. - The central bank and the financial regulatory authority have lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at supporting inventory reduction and market revitalization [40]. - Various local policies have been introduced, such as Shanghai's support for converting existing commercial buildings into elderly care facilities and Shenzhen's "Housing and Entrepreneurship Support Plan" providing three years of tiered rent support [40]. Company Announcements - In December, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Yuexiu Real Estate at 8.996 billion (down 33.4% YoY), China Overseas Land & Investment at 1.99 billion (down 31.0% YoY), and China Resources Land at 41 billion (up 28.1% YoY) [42].