商贸零售行业点评报告：2025年社零同比+3.7%，海南封关首月表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The overall performance of social retail in 2025 was steady, with a total retail sales of 501,202 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. December's retail sales reached 45,136 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.9% [4] - Essential categories like grain, oil, and food maintained resilience, while optional categories like cosmetics performed relatively well. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December increased by 0.8%, with food prices rising by 1.1% [5] - Online retail channels showed a continuous recovery, with total online retail sales reaching 159,722 billion yuan in 2025, marking an 8.6% increase. The share of physical goods in online retail was 130,923 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% [6] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In 2025, the retail sales of essential goods such as grain and oil increased by 3.9%, while optional goods like cosmetics saw an increase of 8.8% in December [5] - The online retail sector showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase in online sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the "emotional consumption" theme, particularly in four investment lines: 1. Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings [7] 2. Offline retail companies adapting to market changes [7] 3. Domestic cosmetics brands that emphasize emotional value and innovative ingredients [7] 4. Medical beauty firms with unique products and expansion strategies [7]