证券研究报告、晨会聚焦：固收吕品：商品行情“缩圈”，关注债市长端品种走势分化-20260119

Core Insights - The report highlights a "contraction" in commodity markets, with a focus on the differentiated performance of long-end bonds in the debt market [3][4] - Recent macro data has shown positive trends, with social financing and export figures exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment [3][4] - The report notes a significant increase in foreign exchange settlements, reaching the highest monthly value since 2014, driven by strong export growth and expectations of RMB appreciation [3][4] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices have cooled down recently, with a notable "contraction" in market activity, particularly in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][4] - The South China Commodity Index has risen by 3.7%, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while energy, black metals, and agricultural products have shown weaker performance [3][4] - The report identifies a divergence in the performance of different metal categories, with precious metals outperforming non-ferrous and black metals [4] Debt Market Insights - The debt market is currently in a relatively balanced range, with 30-year government bond yields around 2.3% and 10-year yields returning to the central bank's target range of approximately 1.85% [4][5] - There is limited room for further declines in short-term bond yields, as market participants shift from a bearish to a more neutral stance [5] - The report suggests that the recent buying activity from major banks, particularly in the 7-10 year maturity range, is providing crucial support for current interest rates [5] Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on high-odds, trading-oriented small metals and silver if risk preferences shift, while suggesting a focus on high-probability copper and aluminum if conditions remain stable [4][5] - The performance of perpetual bonds and secondary capital bonds is highlighted as a key area to watch, with strong buying interest from specific investor segments [6]