近期市场反馈及思考9：2026，债市开年有没有预期差？

Group 1 - The report discusses the central bank's net purchases of government bonds from October to December 2025, indicating a long-term strategy with a high likelihood of continuity in bond buying [7][8] - The flexibility in government bond trading aims to support fiscal efforts and maintain market stability, reflecting a neutral stance in bond purchases [8] - The supply-demand imbalance in the bond market in 2025 was primarily observed in ultra-long government bonds, with a notable decrease in demand for 20-30 year bonds due to capital diversion to the stock market [9][11] Group 2 - The bond market environment in 2025 was characterized by low interest rates, low spreads, and low Sharpe ratios, indicating a weak asset status for bonds [12][13] - Key concerns for the 2026 bond market include supply-demand imbalances, expectations of rising prices, and the rebalancing of asset allocation due to capital diversion [13][14] - Despite a generally bearish sentiment for 2026, there may be a discrepancy in expectations in the first quarter, with interest rates projected to be lower initially and higher later in the year [14] Group 3 - The report highlights a significant outflow of funds from credit bond ETFs at the beginning of 2026, with a decline in scale exceeding 60% of the previous month's inflow [16] - The demand for credit bonds may stabilize in the future, but caution is advised regarding the strategy for component bonds until the credit bond ETF market expands again [16] - The report notes that the yield on public bonds has significantly decreased compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, with potential support for the market from the demand for amortized bond funds in Q1 2026 [17][18] Group 4 - Following the end of the net value smoothing rectification, wealth management products are exploring new valuation methods to stabilize net value fluctuations while attracting funds [20][21] - The new third-party valuation methods are expected to align with regulatory directions and may be applied more to specific bond types, such as perpetual bonds [21] - The pricing anchor for convertible bonds has shifted to the equity market's beta and the underlying stock's alpha, indicating a transition to a right-side trading asset [22][23] Group 5 - The key contradiction in the convertible bond market is the declining supply, which may lead investors to seek alternative assets if the market continues to shrink [25]