海外策略周报：市场风偏短期受到压制-20260119

Core Insights - The resilience of the US economy has exceeded expectations, with geopolitical tensions escalating and the probability of Walsh becoming the new Federal Reserve Chairman significantly increasing, leading to adjustments in the US stock market [2] - The MSCI global index rose by 0.33%, while US stocks declined, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones falling by 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [2][17] - The US retail sales for November 2025 increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below the anticipated 215,000 [2][7] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, particularly regarding US interests in Greenland and military actions in Iran and Venezuela, which may impact market risk appetite [2][12] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with the dollar strengthening and gold prices potentially adjusting despite benefiting from safe-haven demand [2][20] Economic Fundamentals - US retail sales for November 2025 showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, with core retail sales (excluding automobiles) rising by 0.5% [7][8] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10, 2026, dropped to 198,000, indicating a robust labor market [7][8] Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical uncertainty index has significantly increased, reflecting rising tensions, particularly regarding US military interests in Greenland and actions against Iran and Venezuela [10][12] - The probability of Kevin Walsh succeeding as the Federal Reserve Chairman has risen following recent statements from President Trump [10][12] Market Performance - The US stock market has shown mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones experiencing declines, while European and emerging markets generally saw gains [2][17] - The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields increased by 6 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively, indicating a shift in market expectations [20] - The dollar index rose by 0.23% to 99.37, while commodities like gold and oil also saw price increases [20] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market showed overall gains, with the Hang Seng Index and related indices rising between 1.9% and 2.7% [35][31] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a PE ratio of 12.20, indicating a favorable position compared to historical averages [35][32] - Non-essential consumer sectors led the gains in Hong Kong, with significant inflows into technology and healthcare sectors [40][47]