2026年01月19日：期货市场交易指引-20260119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade sideways [1][5][6] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies, strengthening watch on aluminum, suggesting watching or selling on rallies for nickel, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions for tin, range trading for gold, bullish on silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][10][13][14][15][16][17][18] - Energy and Chemicals: Adopting a low - buying strategy for PVC, temporarily watching for caustic soda and soda ash, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, and expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][22][23][24][25] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust sideways, and apples and jujubes to trade weakly [1][26][28][29] - Agricultural and Livestock: Adopting a short - selling strategy on near - term hog contracts on rallies and cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; being cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedging on rallies for grain holders; being bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts on dips and bearish on far - term contracts; expecting three major oils to trade sideways with rapeseed oil stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][30][33][35][37][38] Core Views - Geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics are the main factors affecting the futures market. For example, Trump's tariff policies, Fed's interest rate decisions, and changes in supply and demand of various commodities have significant impacts on prices [5][6][11][17] - Different commodities have different supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some commodities are affected by seasonal factors, while others are more influenced by policy and macroeconomic factors [8][9][19][22][31] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Indices: With market sentiment cooling and the central bank cutting policy tool rates, stock indices are expected to trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Government Bonds: After the central bank cuts the structural monetary policy tool rate, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend. Government bonds are expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Due to reduced transportation, slow replenishment by traders, and weak demand, coking coal is suitable for short - term trading [8] - Rebar: Currently, the futures price is at a neutral valuation. With weakening export expectations and short - term balanced supply and demand, rebar is expected to trade in a range, and investors can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [8] - Glass: Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the middle - stream inventory has increased. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and glass prices are expected to trade weakly. Investors can sell on rallies and focus on the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: After a short - term rise, copper prices face adjustment pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and weak downstream demand. In the short term, copper is expected to trade at a high level, and investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - Aluminum: Due to the weak reality of alumina surplus and strong fundamental pressure in January, aluminum prices face upward pressure. Investors are advised to strengthen watch [13] - Nickel: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas stimulates bullish sentiment, the fundamentals are weak. Nickel prices are expected to trade sideways, and investors are advised to watch [14][15] - Tin: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and downstream demand maintaining rigid procurement, tin prices are expected to trade sideways. Investors can conduct range trading or take profits on previous long positions [15] - Silver and Gold: Affected by geopolitical tensions and changes in the expectation of the Fed chairperson, silver and gold prices are bullish in the medium term. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is suitable for range trading [16][17] - Lithium Carbonate: With strong downstream demand and potential supply supplements, lithium carbonate prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors need to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering low valuation and potential policy and cost factors, a low - buying strategy is recommended, and investors can focus on positive calendar spreads [19][21] - Caustic Soda: With weak demand and high supply, caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Although there may be some support in the medium term, the rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to watch [21] - Styrene: After a previous rebound, styrene's valuation is high. Investors should be cautious about chasing highs and focus on cost and supply - demand changes in the medium to long term [21] - Rubber: Due to the seasonal inventory build - up, weak cost support, and high downstream production and sales pressure, rubber prices are expected to decline in the short term and trade in a range [22] - Urea: With increasing supply and relatively stable demand, urea prices are expected to trade in a range. Investors should focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, and export policies [23] - Methanol: With the recovery of inland supply and weak traditional downstream demand, and affected by geopolitical tensions and port arrivals, methanol prices are expected to trade in a range [24] - Polyolefins: Affected by cost and supply - demand factors, polyolefins are expected to trade weakly. Investors should focus on downstream demand, geopolitical situations, and crude oil price fluctuations [24][25] - Soda Ash: With supply surplus and rising production costs, soda ash prices may have limited downside space. Investors are advised to watch [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: After a recent rise, cotton prices are adjusting sideways. In the long term, the outlook is optimistic. Investors should be cautious in the short term [28] - Apples and Jujubes: With the Spring Festival approaching, the trading of apples and jujubes is generally weak, and prices are expected to trade weakly [28][29] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: In the short term, due to high supply pressure, the rebound of hog prices is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and investors should be cautiously bullish [30][31] - Eggs: With low basis and high valuation, short - term spot prices are expected to be strong. Investors can hedge post - holiday 02 and 03 contracts on rallies. In the medium and long term, supply pressure still exists [33][34] - Corn: In the short term, there is limited driving force for price increases, and investors should be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, although demand is gradually released, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which limits the upside space [35][36] - Soybean Meal: Near - term contracts are expected to be bullish on dips, while far - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies [37][38] - Oils: Three major oils are expected to open lower and trade weakly. Investors can focus on the strategy of narrowing the 05 spreads between rapeseed and palm oils and rapeseed and soybean oils [38][43]