更“耗材”的全球投资周期意味着什么？

Group 1: Global Investment Trends - The global capital expenditure is expected to accelerate by 2026, with "consumables" growth significantly surpassing the initial phase of AI investments[1] - AI investment in 2025 is projected to reach $460 billion, accounting for approximately 1.5% of GDP, exceeding the peak of the internet bubble period[13] - The demand for commodities related to AI is anticipated to increase exponentially, with a low price sensitivity due to supply-side constraints[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policies and Defense Spending - Major economies like the US, Europe, and Japan are implementing expansionary fiscal policies, focusing on defense and supply chain security, which will increase "consumable" demand[2] - NATO countries' defense spending is expected to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.5% by 2035, with annual increases of 0.13 percentage points required for EU countries[49] - Germany and France are projected to reach defense spending targets of 3-3.5% of GDP by 2030, necessitating annual increases of 0.2 percentage points[52] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Recovery - The global manufacturing sector is likely to experience an upturn, driven by AI-related investments and infrastructure demands, positively impacting exports, especially from Asia[59] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to decrease, which may alleviate the drag on manufacturing investments[61] - The US corporate investment growth forecast for 2026 has been revised upward to 4.8%[62]