供应恢复需求仍有支撑：长江期货尿素周报-20260119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply of urea is expected to increase as maintenance devices have复产 plans and daily output is set to rise, but demand remains supported. With agricultural fertilizer procurement and increased raw - material replenishment in the compound fertilizer industry, and the inventory level of urea enterprises being low compared to the same period last year, the price of urea will fluctuate within the range of 1,730 - 1,830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea futures prices continued to rise at the beginning of the week and declined slightly at the end. On January 16, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,791 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the Henan market averaged 1,744 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.81% increase [4][7]. - The basis of the main urea contract weakened first and then strengthened. On January 16, the main basis in the Henan market was - 47 yuan/ton, with a weekly range of (-86) - (-47) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly, at 28 yuan/ton on January 16, with a weekly range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - Supply: The operating load rate of urea in China was 83.59%, down 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 54.18%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week. The daily output of urea was 20.07 tons. Some devices in Xinjiang, Shandong, Yunnan, and Henan were under maintenance or reduced production, while some in Sichuan and Xinjiang resumed production. Maintenance devices in Gansu, Yunnan, and Sichuan are planned to resume next week, indicating an expected increase in supply [4][13]. - Cost: The price of anthracite coal was slightly stronger. As of January 15, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 850 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing - price center up 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [4][17]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 10.64%. The mainstream price of the urea market increased, leading to an increase in production profit [17]. - Demand: - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.9 days, and the weekly sales - to - production ratio of urea enterprises was 98.8%. Agricultural demand was mainly for reserve procurement, and industrial demand was stable overall [18][19]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.08%, up 2.91 percentage points from the previous week. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 71.18 tons, up 1.66 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer market was in the stage of concentrated winter - storage fertilizer sales, and raw - material inventory was replenished at appropriate prices [4][23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 54.29%, up 3.08 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 29,000 tons. Although a device of Shandong Heli Tai had a temporary short - stop maintenance and Hubei Huaqiang resumed production, the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises is expected to continue to increase next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, weakening the demand support for the panel market [27]. - Inventory: Urea enterprise inventory was 84 tons, down 29,000 tons from the previous week and 69 tons less than the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 27.2 tons, down 6,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, totaling 267,100 tons, an increase of 4,280 receipts (85,600 tons) compared to the same period last year [4][30]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal - price fluctuations [4]