流动性和机构行为周度观察：资金利率先上后下，关注税期扰动-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the central bank conducted short - term reverse repurchase net investment, with 6M outright reverse repurchase operations of 90 billion yuan and a net investment of 30 billion yuan. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the expected net payment of government bonds is 20.65 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit is about 70.64 billion yuan. On January 16, 2026, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.06 years and decreased by 0.01 years week - on - week respectively [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - Fund Investment and Maturity: From January 12 - 16, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase investment was 951.5 billion yuan, and the repurchase was 138.7 billion yuan, achieving a net investment of 812.8 billion yuan. On January 15, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 6M outright reverse repurchase, with 60 billion yuan of 6M outright reverse repurchase maturing this month, resulting in a net investment of 30 billion yuan. From January 19 - 23, 2026, the maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchase is 951.5 billion yuan, and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [6]. - Fund Interest Rates: From January 12 - 16, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.36% and 1.43% respectively, up 9.3 and 9.1 basis points compared with January 5 - 9, 2026; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.51% and 1.55% respectively, up 5.5 and 4.3 basis points compared with January 5 - 9, 2026. The short - term disturbing factors for the funds in the future include tax payment, capital freezing for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and a month - on - month increase in the net payment scale of government bonds [7]. 2. Government Bonds - Net Financing Scale: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the net financing of government bonds was about - 48.5 billion yuan, about 481.2 billion yuan more reduction compared with January 5 - 11, 2026. Among them, the net financing of treasury bonds was about - 119.2 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds was about 70.7 billion yuan. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the expected net financing of government bonds is about 20.65 billion yuan, among which the net financing of treasury bonds is about - 10.7 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds is about 217.2 billion yuan [8]. 3. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Maturity Yields: As of January 16, 2026, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.5200% and 1.5950% respectively, down 1.3 basis points and basically unchanged compared with January 9, 2026; the maturity yield of 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.6250%, down 0.8 basis points compared with January 9, 2026 [9]. - Net Financing Amount: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 254.9 billion yuan. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the expected maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit is 70.64 billion yuan, and the maturity renewal scale decreased slightly compared with the previous week [9]. 4. Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio: From January 12 - 16, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.88%, compared with 108.14% from January 5 - 9, 2026 [10]. - Duration of Bond Funds: On January 16, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.95 years, up 0.06 years week - on - week, at the 93.5% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.87 years, down 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 58.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].