渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.20）-20260120

Macro and Strategy Research - The performance of corporate credit is better than that of household credit, with a slight year-on-year decrease in RMB loans in December 2025, where corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans significantly outperformed the same period in 2024 [3][5] - The increase in M2 year-on-year indicates a positive trend, with non-bank financial institutions showing better deposit performance compared to the same period in 2024 [4][5] - The financial data for December 2025 highlights the growth in corporate credit, while household credit remains under pressure, necessitating further observation of sustainability [5] Fixed Income Research - Green bonds are defined as securities issued to raise funds specifically for green industries, projects, or economic activities, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.32 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [6][9] - The development of China's green bond market can be divided into three stages: exploratory phase (2015), standardized development phase (2016-2020), and system improvement phase (2021-present), with significant growth in issuance scale and variety [9][10] - Green bonds generally exhibit a stable interest rate advantage, with their issuance rates lower than corresponding non-green bonds, although this advantage has slightly diminished in recent years [10] Fund Research - The first gold ETF exceeding 100 billion yuan has been established, indicating a significant milestone in the market [11] - The public fund market saw a net outflow of 157.33 billion yuan in the ETF sector, with stock-type ETFs experiencing the largest outflow [12][13] - The average performance of equity funds was positive, with a 74.98% positive return ratio, while fixed income funds also showed strong performance [11][12] Industry Research - The focus on cultivating service consumption is emphasized, with sports events and IP+ consumption expected to benefit directly from new policies aimed at enhancing service consumption [14][15] - Recent announcements include measures from the Shanghai government to promote service industry quality and consumption expansion, indicating a shift towards service sector reform [14] - The light industry and textile sectors have shown mixed performance, with the light industry underperforming the CSI 300 index while the textile sector slightly outperformed it [14][15]