黑色板块拖累，原木跌破估值

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the agricultural products market shows a complex situation with different trends for each variety. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are likely to be weak or strong in different periods [5][6][10]. - For example, in the short - term, log prices are expected to be volatile and strong, while sugar prices are expected to be volatile and weak [22][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Viewpoint: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats will fluctuate narrowly. - Logic: Macroeconomic policies are relatively loose. The US Department of Agriculture raised the global soybean production and inventory in 25/26. The inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased, and the market sentiment of rapeseed oil was affected by trade agreements and bio - diesel news. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil will fluctuate, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider phased buying hedging after corrections and the strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - Viewpoint: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and soybean meal is testing the lower support. - Logic: Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds is decreasing. Domestically, the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact, but factors such as pre - holiday stocking support the price of soybean meal. - Outlook: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - Viewpoint: Snow disrupts logistics, and prices are still supported. - Logic: The supply is in a tight balance in the short - term. Snow disrupts logistics, and the supply is tight. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a positive impact on prices. - Outlook: The market will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [10]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Viewpoint: Snow boosts the spot price, but the futures market still has inventory pressure. - Logic: In the short - term, the early - month slaughter rhythm is slow, and snow drives up the price. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. - Outlook: It will fluctuate. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Viewpoint: The macro - driving force weakens, and the market enters a wide - range fluctuation. - Logic: The rubber price is affected by the overall commodity adjustment. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is weak after the price rise. - Outlook: It will return to a wide - range fluctuation in the short - term and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term [15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - Viewpoint: It is in a corrective adjustment, and the market closes down. - Logic: After the previous price increase, there is a lack of upward momentum, but the downside space is limited due to tight raw materials. The medium - term bullish logic remains. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is pressure in the short - term, and it will be volatile and strong in the medium - term [17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Viewpoint: It continues to adjust, and the cotton price closes down. - Logic: In the short - term, the cotton price is in an adjustment period after the previous rise. The new cotton is in the concentrated listing period, and the consumption is relatively good. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise. - Outlook: It will be volatile and strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18]. 3.1.8 Sugar - Viewpoint: The sugar price continues to fluctuate narrowly. - Logic: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the supply in the domestic market is increasing. - Outlook: It will be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - Viewpoint: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, and the fundamental concerns increase. - Logic: The import cost is rising, but the demand is entering the off - season, and the liquidity of softwood pulp is abundant. The hardwood pulp price is showing signs of decline. - Outlook: It will be volatile and weak in the short - term [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - Viewpoint: The commodity is adjusting, and double - glued paper is running weakly. - Logic: The macro - sentiment declines, and the futures market is under pressure from warehouse receipts. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. - Outlook: It will be volatile and weak [20][21]. 3.1.11 Logs - Viewpoint: Affected by the black sector, logs fall below the valuation. - Logic: The futures price is affected by the black sector and falls into the low - valuation area. The fundamentals are improving marginally. The delivery pressure in some areas is weakening, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising. - Outlook: It will be volatile and strong in the short - term, and the 03 contract can be operated in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [22]. 3.2 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index shows different trends. The commodity 20 index increased by 0.20%, the industrial products index decreased by 0.28%, and the agricultural products index decreased by 0.74% on January 19, 2026 [182][184].