Guoxin Securities·2026-01-20 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][12]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to recover in 2026, driven by the continuation of national subsidies and stabilization of exports, suggesting a positive outlook for leading white goods companies [1][12][18]. - December retail performance for home appliances showed signs of bottoming out, with significant declines in major appliances but a relatively stable performance in small appliances [1][19]. - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the home appliance sector, with a focus on white goods, which are expected to maintain steady growth despite high base effects [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Hisense Visual for black goods; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13]. 2. December Retail Performance - In December, the retail sales of major appliances saw declines exceeding 20%, while small appliances showed slightly better demand, with air fryers experiencing growth [1][19]. - The offline sales channels for major appliances faced declines of over 40%, while kitchen small appliances remained relatively stable [1][19]. 3. Export Performance - In December, China's home appliance exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with air conditioners facing a significant decline of 20.7% [2][37]. - Other categories like refrigerators and washing machines showed modest growth, indicating a mixed performance across different product lines [2][37]. 4. U.S. Market Insights - U.S. retail sales for home appliances showed a slight increase of 0.8% in November, indicating a gradual return to stable growth despite challenges such as tariffs and inflation [3][43]. - The inventory levels in U.S. appliance stores are returning to normal, suggesting improved market conditions [3][43]. 5. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating expected EPS growth for Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Haier Smart Home, among others, with all rated as "Outperform the Market" [5][76].