山金期货黑色板块日报-20260120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction in re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent. However, the market is in the off - season, and the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush construction and lack strong sustainability. Steel mill production may continue to decline in the short term. [2] - For the iron ore sector, demand is affected by the seasonal decline in molten iron production, and the improvement in steel apparent demand is likely due to year - end rush construction. The accident at a rolling mill of Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand. Supply has decreased in global shipments, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand Situation: Last week, thread production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand for thread and the five major steel products rebounded. The market is in the off - season, and the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush construction. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline. [2] - Technical Analysis: Futures prices rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough and facing significant pressure. [2] - Operation Suggestion: Reduce long positions, wait for futures prices to fall to the lower edge of the oscillation range and then add positions on dips for mid - line trading. Avoid chasing highs or selling lows. [2] - Data Summary: - Prices: Thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices generally declined. For example, the closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3140 yuan/ton, down 0.79% from last week. [2] - Basis and Spreads: The basis and spreads of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures showed different changes. For example, the main basis of thread steel was 150 yuan/ton, up 5 from last week. [2] - Production and Inventory: The production of some products changed, and inventory also showed different trends. For example, the production of thread steel by national building material steel mills was 190.30 tons, down 0.39% from last week. The social inventory of thread steel was 295.41 tons, up 1.80% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - Demand Situation: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged last week, and apparent demand rebounded. Molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand is due to year - end rush construction, and steel and molten iron production will not rise significantly but also have limited decline space. The accident at a rolling mill of Baotou Steel Group may affect iron ore demand. [3] - Supply Situation: Global shipments have decreased, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. [3] - Price Support Factor: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices. [3] - Technical Analysis: Futures prices broke through the recent oscillation range and rose strongly but have adjusted significantly in the past two days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average, indicating the end of the mid - line upward trend. [3] - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions and reduce or liquidate positions in a timely manner when the price rises in the future. [3] - Data Summary: - Prices: Iron ore spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 794 yuan/dry ton, down 3.47% from last week. [4] - Basis and Spreads: The basis and spreads of iron ore futures showed different changes. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 14 yuan/dry ton, up 75 from last week. [4] - Supply - related Data: Overseas shipments decreased, and port inventories increased. For example, Australian iron ore shipments were 1440.1 tons, down 13.22% from last week, and port inventory was 16555.1 tons, up 1.72% from last week. [4] 3. Industry News - From January 12th to 18th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2897.7 tons, a decrease of 117.3 tons from the previous period. [6] - From January 12th to 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2929.8 tons, a decrease of 251.1 tons from the previous period. [6] - In December 2025, the crude steel output was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. [6] - In December 2025, the raw coal output was 43703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. [6]