能源化工日报-20260120

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Latin America and the Middle East does not strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [2] - The current methanol valuation is low, and its outlook for the next year will improve marginally, with limited downside space. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [4] - The current domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [7] - Rubber is in a seasonally weak period. Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy will be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity price expectations and pre - export rush support PVC, in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is still the main approach until there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14] - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [17] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price is expected to bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season, but there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil on dips [26] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, and the rhythm should be grasped [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, if there are no further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.52%, at 437.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil products rose 3.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.12%, at 2538.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.07%, at 3060.00 yuan/ton [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.12 million barrels to 11.72 million barrels, a 10.56% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 1.06% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.08 million barrels to 6.74 million barrels, a 1.12% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.19 million barrels, an 18.21% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 7.62 million barrels, a 0.72% decrease; the total refined oil inventory increased by 2.10 million barrels to 47.25 million barrels, a 4.65% increase [1] 3.2 Polyester - Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 17 yuan/ton, southern Shandong by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main futures contract changed by 36.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2212 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Urea - Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 22 yuan/ton [6] - The main futures contract changed by - 19 yuan/ton, closing at 1772 yuan/ton [6] 3.4 Rubber - Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, with a technical bearish outlook. Bulls cited seasonal expectations and improved demand expectations, while bears pointed to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal weak demand [9] - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure, and it was in the pre - Spring Festival inventory production stage. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year [10] - As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons, and the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons [10] - In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1880 (- 20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was at 1885 (- 20) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at 9500 (- 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was at 11300 (- 200) yuan [11] 3.5 PVC - The PVC05 contract fell 2 yuan, closing at 4801 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4560 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 115 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (+100) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (- 20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 635 (- 23) yuan/ton [13] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 80%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 78.8%, a 0.8% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 43.9%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 311,000 (- 17,000) tons, and the social inventory was 1.144 million (+30,000) tons [13] 3.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure - benzene contract was 5827 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the pure - benzene basis was - 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7295 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton; the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a weakening of 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 157.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.75 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 38.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [16] - On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.86%, a 0.06% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 31,700 tons to 100,600 tons [16] - On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of three S products was 41.91%, a 1.02% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.40%, a 1.50% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 54.05%, a 7.34% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, unchanged [16] 3.7 Polyethylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 28 yuan/ton [19] - The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders was 29,200 tons, unchanged. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan expansion [19] 3.8 Polypropylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6565 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 14 yuan/ton [21] - The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons [21] - The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 185 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan narrowing [22] 3.9 PX - The PX03 contract rose 20 yuan, closing at 7106 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 879 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 25) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+2) [25] - In terms of PX load, China's load was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease; Asia's load was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, while overseas, Thailand's PTTG and Israel's Gadiv plants restarted [25] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 146,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 7000 tons [25] - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 331 US dollars (+6), South Korea's PX - MX was 142 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 78 US dollars (- 10) [25] 3.10 PTA - The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan, closing at 5030 yuan. The East China spot price rose 10 yuan, closing at 4970 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 42 yuan (- 2) [28] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted [28] - The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 2.005 million tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee rose 11 yuan to 314 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee fell 2 yuan to 368 yuan [28] 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan, closing at 3755 yuan. The East China spot price fell 28 yuan, closing at 3637 yuan. The basis was - 121 yuan (+11), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (- 4) [30] - On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Among them, the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol load was 80.2%, a 0.9% increase; the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol load was 71.2%, a 0.1% decrease. Tianye reduced its load in the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol segment; Chengdu Petrochemical shut down in the oil - chemical segment; overseas, a Kuwaiti plant shut down, and the US Sasol reduced its load [30] - The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55% [30] - The import arrival forecast was 148,000 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 16 - 18 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 795,000 tons, a 7000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol was - 904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol was - 771 yuan, and the profit of coal - to - ethylene - glycol was - 5 yuan. The cost of ethylene fell to 710 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines rose to 600 yuan [30]