Guoxin Securities·2026-01-20 01:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Action" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The R&D expenses related to AI are projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming revenue is projected to reach CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tencent's Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be CNY 68.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. The Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 34% [10][11] - The overall revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 752 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11][30] Gaming Sector - The gaming business is expected to generate CNY 58 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% [5][21] - Upcoming game releases, including "Delta Action" and "Future of Counterattack," are anticipated to enhance revenue streams [21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, with an 18% year-on-year increase. AI-driven advertising solutions are expected to improve operational efficiency for advertisers [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with expected revenue of CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the introduction of AI applications in WeChat mini-programs [20]