Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. Stock Index: In the long - term, policies support the capital market, and in the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 2. Treasury Bonds: The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market rally, government bond supply pressure, and inflation expectations in the first quarter [6]. 3. Precious Metals: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [8]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as supply and demand, tariffs, and market sentiment [11][13][16]. 5. Black Building Materials: The steel market continues to be weak and volatile, and iron ore prices may be adjusted at high levels. Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and strong. Glass and soda ash markets lack obvious drivers and are expected to be volatile [32][35][39]. 6. Energy Chemicals: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be short - sold if it breaks through a certain price, and methanol is recommended to be bought on dips [57][61]. 7. Agricultural Products: The short - term of some agricultural products such as live pigs and eggs may be strong, while the medium - term of live pigs may be under pressure. Protein meal and oil prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [81][83][86]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - Market Information: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. Memory chip shortages intensify, and the IMF raises China's economic growth forecast [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts for different terms are provided [3]. - Strategy: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short - term, as the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year and the unchanged policy support for the capital market in the long - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts change. China's GDP in 2025 grows by 5%, and relevant economic data for December 2025 is released. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 722 million yuan [5]. - Strategy: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, the demand side is weak, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the first quarter, affected by factors such as the stock market rally and government bond supply [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rise, and relevant information about the Fed's new chairman's candidate and the Fed's independence is provided [7][8]. - Strategy: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, buy on dips after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Copper prices rise, LME copper inventory increases, domestic electrolytic copper inventory changes, and the import loss and refined - scrap copper price difference are given [10]. - Strategy: Although market sentiment is affected by tariffs, it is not pessimistic. The copper price is expected to be volatile at a high level, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices rise, inventory changes, and the processing fee and spot premium/discount are provided [12]. - Strategy: The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [14][15]. - Strategy: The industrial situation has no obvious improvement, but zinc has a large room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [16]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [17]. - Strategy: Lead supply increases, and the price may be affected by market sentiment. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rise, and the cost and price of nickel ore and nickel iron change [19][20]. - Strategy: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [20]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices fall, supply and demand change, and inventory increases [21]. - Strategy: The price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [21]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The price index of lithium carbonate falls, and the futures price rises [22]. - Strategy: The price fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The price index of alumina falls, inventory increases, and relevant cost data are provided [24][25]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts on rallies, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rise, inventory decreases, and raw material prices are provided [27]. - Strategy: The price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, with a reference price range for the main contract [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy is stable, inventory decreases, and the price difference between contracts changes [28]. - Strategy: The price is expected to be volatile and consolidate in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall, and inventory and position data change [31]. - Strategy: The steel market is weak and volatile. The explosion at Baotou Steel may lead to a short - term supply contraction, and attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking and policy changes [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of iron ore falls, and relevant data such as inventory and basis are provided [33]. - Strategy: Supply pressure eases, but the new driving force is insufficient. The price may be adjusted at high levels, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and hot metal production [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: The prices of coking coal and coke rise, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [36]. - Strategy: The prices are expected to be volatile and strong, but attention should be paid to short - term market sentiment shocks and high volatility risks [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: - Market Information: The price of glass falls, inventory decreases, and position changes [40]. - Strategy: The supply and demand are in a loose balance, and the price is expected to be volatile in a wide range, with a reference price range for the main contract [40]. - Soda Ash: - Market Information: The price of soda ash is stable, inventory changes, and position changes [41]. - Strategy: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted out, with a reference price range for the main contract [42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fall, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [43][44]. - Strategy: The market sentiment affects the price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: - Market Information: The price of industrial silicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [47]. - Strategy: The price is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the implementation of large - factory production cuts [49]. - Polysilicon: - Market Information: The price of polysilicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [50]. - Strategy: The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [51]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices are weak, with different views from bulls and bears. Tire factory开工率 changes, and inventory increases [53][54][55]. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy if the price breaks through a certain level, and consider partial position - building for a spread trading strategy [57]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of crude oil falls, and the inventory of refined oil products changes [58]. - Strategy: Raise the valuation of heavy - oil products, and expect the spread of asphalt or fuel oil to rise [59]. Methanol - Market Information: The price of methanol changes, and MTO profit changes [60]. - Strategy: The current valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips due to geopolitical expectations [61]. Urea - Market Information: The price of urea changes, and the basis is provided [62]. - Strategy: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [64]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [65]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC falls, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [66][67]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern is poor, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term, with short - term support from electricity prices and export - rush [68]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term and expect further valuation compression in the medium - term [70]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - Strategy: Enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [72]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The price of p - xylene rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - Strategy: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - Strategy: The price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the spread between LL5 and LL9 contracts on dips [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [77]. - Strategy: The supply pressure eases, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year under the background of weak supply and demand [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices show different trends in the north and south, and the market sentiment changes [80]. - Strategy: The short - term is strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure due to large supply [81]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and inventory and demand data are provided [82]. - Strategy: The short - term is strong, but the overall supply is abundant. The long - term of the far - end contract is expected to be good, but there are uncertainties [83][84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fall, and relevant trade and inventory data are provided [85]. - Strategy: The prices are affected by multiple negative factors, and short - term fluctuations may increase [86]. Oils - Market Information: The prices of oils fall, and relevant inventory and policy information are provided [87][88]. - Strategy: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term is expected to be optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of sugar fluctuates, and relevant import and production data are provided [90][91]. - Strategy: International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The short - term downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [92]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of cotton fluctuates, and relevant import, production, and inventory data are provided [93][94]. - Strategy: The cotton price has room for growth in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [95].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026-01-20-20260120
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-20 01:42