2026-01-20：五矿期货农产品早报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February when the increase in production is fully realized. The domestic sugar price has limited downside in the short - term due to reduced imported sugar supply, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the long - term, cotton prices have room to rise due to reduced planting area and positive macro - expectations. However, due to the recent large increase, it is recommended to wait for a pullback before buying [8]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly negative, and the increase in China's purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is negative for domestic meal prices. The potential reduction of the import tax on Canadian rapeseed is also negative for domestic rapeseed prices. The price of protein meal is at a previous low, and short - term volatility will increase [11]. - For oils, the current fundamental situation is weak with high inventory in palm oil - producing areas and in China. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, so it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [16]. - For eggs, the near - term contracts may fluctuate with limited upside and downside, while the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is positive but uncertain [19]. - For pigs, the short - term structural contradiction supports the near - term contracts, while the medium - term supply pressure may weigh on far - end prices [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5244 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The new sugar prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups decreased, while the mainstream price of processed sugar increased slightly [2]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons [3]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of then, the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugarcane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, and the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36% [3]. - As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518 [3]. - As of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons [3]. Strategy - Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. Domestically, due to reduced imported sugar supply and low prices, wait and see in the short - term [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [5]. - As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [5]. - The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast but an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [7]. - The January 2026 USDA forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease from the previous forecast [7]. - Brazil's cotton production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, India's decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [7]. - As of the week of January 8, the current - year US cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 191,000 tons. The export sales to China were 13,600 tons that week, and the cumulative export sales to China were 85,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 71,200 tons [7]. Strategy - In the long - term, cotton prices have room to rise. Wait for a pullback to buy [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, protein meal futures prices declined. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 1.51% [10]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2370 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [10]. - China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promised to reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% [10]. - As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans that week, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 30.64 million tons. The US exported 1.22 million tons of soybeans to China that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 8.12 million tons [10]. - As of the week of January 16, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, a 6.47 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [10]. Strategy - The January USDA report is slightly negative, but the overall balance sheet is better than in 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is negative for domestic meal prices. The potential tax reduction on Canadian rapeseed is negative for domestic rapeseed prices. The protein meal price is at a previous low, and short - term volatility will increase [11]. Oils Market Information - On Monday, oil futures prices declined. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 7996 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.25%, the closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8648 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.3%, and the closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan/ton or 1.78% [13]. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [13]. - As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week [13]. - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keeping it at the current proposed level and may abandon the plan to impose penalties on the import of renewable fuels and raw materials [15]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50 plan) this year and will maintain the current B40 plan [15]. - The January USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 billion tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast but an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year [15]. - In December 2025, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [15]. - As of the end of December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. The production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. The export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [15]. Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. Wait and see in the short - term [16]. Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few declining. The average price in the main production areas dropped slightly to 3.66 yuan/jin. The supply was basically stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were confident about the future, the inventory at each level increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average. It is expected that most egg prices in the country will be stable, with a few declining [18]. Strategy - Near - term contracts may fluctuate with limited upside and downside, while the long - term outlook for far - end contracts is positive but uncertain [19]. Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices were weak in the north and strong in the south, with mixed trends. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.04 yuan to 13.53 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.11 yuan to 13.02 yuan/kg. After the continuous price increase, the southern downstream began to resist high - priced pigs, the market sales slowed down, the enthusiasm of farmers to increase prices may weaken, and pig prices may stabilize. In some northern areas, transportation may still be restricted, and the increase in farmers' sales may lead to a decline in pig prices [21]. Strategy - Short - term structural contradictions support the near - term contracts, while medium - term supply pressure may weigh on far - end prices [22].