美欧关税担忧升温，?银价格再创新

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and its long - term upward driving force remains unchanged. Silver may have a convergent short - term increase, with a risk of high - level volatility decline, and is expected to maintain a high - level range in the long run [3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Gold - Logic: Driven by concerns over the escalation of US - Europe tariffs, the intraday New York gold price reached a new high of $4698 per ounce. Recent US economic data shows resilience, delaying the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation to June. The US - Europe tariff conflict continues to ferment, so the gold price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to events such as the US Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump tariff case on January 20, the release of November core PCE and GDP data on January 22, and the nomination of the new Fed chairman in late January [2] - Outlook: The long - term upward driving force for gold remains unchanged [2] 3.2 Silver - Logic: The silver price rose strongly, with the New York silver price rising nearly 6% and the SHFE silver price rising nearly 5% intraday. It was boosted by Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries and the fermentation of European counter - measures. The 1M and 3M silver lease rates have fallen to the 3% - 5% range. The key mineral tariff increase and the US - Iran geopolitical conflict have both eased. Considering the high silver volatility, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the volatility may decline from high levels [3] - Outlook: In the long term, the key mineral tariffs are not completely cancelled but a negotiation window of up to 180 days is set. The structural shortage of silver spot caused by hoarding demand has not been fundamentally resolved, so the silver price is expected to maintain a high - level range [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - Special Index: The commodity index was 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial product index was 2316.27, down 0.28% [45] 3.4 Precious Metals Index - On January 19, 2026, the precious metals index was 4417.55, with a daily increase of 2.07%, a 5 - day increase of 4.62%, a 1 - month increase of 18.84%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.51% [47]