国新国证期货早报-20260120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 19, 2026, the A-share market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.70%. The trading volume of the three major markets decreased significantly. Different futures varieties also showed different trends affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 19, the A-share three major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to close at 4114.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to close at 14294.05 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.70% to close at 3337.61 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2732.5 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 324.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4734.46, a环比 increase of 2.58 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 19, the coke weighted index was narrowly sorted, closing at 1722.8, a环比 decrease of 17.8; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within the range, closing at 1180.2 yuan, a环比 decrease of 8.5. The comprehensive absolute price index of coke was 1381.7 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the ex-warehouse price of first-class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily consumption of coke decreased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased, and the daily molten iron output decreased. The port inventory of coke increased, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased. The domestic coking coal spot price index increased, the price of Luliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of Ganqimaodu raw coal increased. The daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines and 110 sample coal washing plants increased, while the daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel enterprises decreased. The inventory of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased, the port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased [2][3][4][5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the significant increase in imports in December 2025 and the downward adjustment of spot quotes, the short side suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on January 19. The short side continued to suppress the contract at night, causing it to fluctuate lower. China's sugar imports in December were 580,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.9%, and the cumulative imports from January to December were 4.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [5] Rubber - The latest tariff threat issued by the United States to Europe over the Greenland issue made investors uneasy. Long positions were closed, causing the Shanghai Rubber to fluctuate lower on January 19 and continue to decline at night. In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the United States was 240.001 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Among them, the imports of passenger car tires increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 145.42 million, the imports of truck and bus tires increased by 6% year-on-year to 51.73 million, the imports of aircraft tires decreased by 8% year-on-year to 227,000, the imports of motorcycle tires increased by 15% year-on-year to 3.25 million, and the imports of bicycle tires decreased by 3% year-on-year to 5.41 million [5][7] Palm Oil - On January 19, the palm oil market showed slight fluctuations. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative doji. The highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, and the closing price was 8648, a 0.30% decrease from the previous day. As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 746,100 tons, a 1.01 million-ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.37%; a 264,300-ton increase from 481,800 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 54.86% [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on January 19, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1056.25 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase from the previous trading day. Brazil began to harvest a record soybean crop, and as of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in the 2025/26 season was 2%, higher than the same period last year. Brazil exported 1.3073 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, higher than the export volume in January last year. It is expected that Brazilian soybeans will dominate the global soybean export business in the next few months, and the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans will continue to limit the increase in soybean prices. In the domestic market, on January 19, the soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. China's soybean imports in 2025 exceeded 110 million tons for the first time, and the high transaction rate of imported soybean auctions supplemented the market supply. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter is expected to be loose. Currently, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at a relatively high level in the same period of the year, and the abundant soybean supply and high inventory pattern continue to restrict the upward space of soybean meal prices. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans in the future [7] Live Pigs - On January 19, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11,705 yuan/ton, a 2.3% decrease. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the annual slaughter volume in 2025 was 719.73 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the year-end live pig inventory was 429.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; the annual pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The data shows that the supply of live pigs remains at a high level, and the output reduction is relatively slow. Both live pigs and pork are in a situation of loose supply. On the demand side, the southern cured meat production is coming to an end, and the demand for large pigs has weakened. However, with the Spring Festival approaching in about a month, the market has gradually started stocking for the Spring Festival. In addition, the large-scale snow and rain weather across the country may lead to a short-term shortage of live pig sources in some areas. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large-scale pig enterprises, and the actual fulfillment of peak-season demand in the future [7] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper closed down, showing a wide range of fluctuations during the day and a weak close. The core drivers were inventory accumulation, weak demand, and the cooling of tariff expectations. The opening price was 101,030, the highest price was 101,860, the lowest price was 99,620, and the closing price was 101,180; the settlement price was 100,650. The trading volume was 240,300 lots, and the open interest was 217,400 lots. In terms of inventory, the Shanghai Copper inventory was 338,000 tons. The arrival of domestic goods increased, and downstream procurement was sluggish. Inventory accumulation suppressed short-term prices. In terms of demand, high prices inhibited procurement, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and the demand support from the processing end was insufficient. On the supply side, five smelters were under maintenance in January, and the refined copper output may decline; there were still concerns about overseas copper mines. In terms of policy sentiment, the United States postponed the imposition of tariffs, cooling the market sentiment and suppressing short-term speculative demand [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 14,465 yuan/ton on the night of January 19. The cotton inventory decreased by 8 lots compared with the previous trading day. The operating rate of downstream spinning mills was relatively high, but the profit was not high [8] Iron Ore - On January 19, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 2.58%, and the closing price was 794 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased环比, the arrival volume continued to increase, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Currently, some steel mills in certain regions are still in the annual maintenance stage, and the molten iron output has decreased. The short-term iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [8] Asphalt - On January 19, the main contract of asphalt 2603 fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.29%, and the closing price was 3142 yuan. The asphalt output increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not large. As the weather cools down, the market's rigid demand will become dull, and it will mostly turn into stocking demand. The short-term asphalt price shows a fluctuating trend [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 780 on January 19, with the lowest price of 763, the highest price of 780, and the closing price of 763. The daily increase in positions was 1621 lots. The price fell on heavy volume today, and attention should be paid to the support from the spot end. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan per cubic meter, a 10-yuan increase per cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro expectations and market sentiment on the price [8][9] Steel - On January 19, rb2605 closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The China Meteorological Administration upgraded and launched a level-three emergency response for cold snaps, freezing, and blizzards. With the arrival of the cold snap, outdoor construction has been affected, and the demand for steel this week may weaken. At the same time, steel mills may increase the intensity of maintenance and production reduction, and the replenishment demand will weaken, suppressing the prices of raw fuels. In the short term, the steel market has weak supply and demand, and the cost support is unstable. Steel prices may fluctuate weakly [9] Alumina - On January 19, ao2605 closed at 2733 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, and the operating capacity remains high, with continuous high production and unabated supply pressure. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weak in the off-season. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is piling up, with high loading, unloading, and storage capacity pressures, and low picking-up efficiency. Some goods are stranded at the platform. At the same time, the delivery warehouses in various places are fully booked and goods are arriving one after another, and the in-transit and platform inventories are increasing. The social inventory of alumina and the raw material inventory of aluminum plants continue to accumulate. In the spot market, the inventory pressure of holders has increased, and their willingness to sell has increased. Goods have flowed into the market, but downstream buyers only maintain rigid demand procurement and have a strong fear of falling prices, resulting in poor overall transactions. Alumina is under upward pressure [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 19, al2603 closed at 24,090 yuan/ton. From a macro perspective, China's GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, reflecting the strong resilience and momentum of the economic operation. In terms of capital, the situation in the Middle East has eased, and the United States has postponed the imposition of tariffs on key mineral sectors, but attention should be paid to the trade game between Europe and the United States over the Greenland issue. The sentiment continues to cool down, and the aluminum price continues to retreat. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is normal, and the social inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a high level compared with the same period last year. The demand side still faces pressure, and the aluminum price continues to retreat. Downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases, and the situation of traders taking delivery has improved. Large-scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain level of demand, while small and medium-sized plants have shrinking orders, and some plan to reduce or stop production before the Spring Festival [9][10]