供应扰动叠加地缘升温，铂钯延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption and escalating geopolitical risks have caused platinum and palladium prices to continue to fluctuate. The short - term platinum price is expected to fluctuate, with a long - term outlook of being oscillatingly stronger. The short - term palladium price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and the long - term price will oscillate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 615.1 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 0.48% [2]. - The recent floods in northern South Africa are expected to impact mine production, logistics, and supply stability. Geopolitical and trade frictions have also intensified. The nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the short term, the platinum price may continue to fluctuate. In the future, South Africa still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity. The long - term outlook is oscillatingly stronger [2][3]. Palladium - As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 477.95 yuan/gram, with an increase of 0.64% [2]. - The market's previous expectation of a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10 did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's investigation report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support the price. In the short term, the palladium price may maintain a wide - range oscillation. Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price. The long - term outlook is oscillating [2][4]. Commodity Index - On January 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was not detailed. The commodity index was 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index was 2316.27, down 0.28% [50]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 19, 2026, was 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decline of - 0.36%, a 1 - month increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [52].