国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260120

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Iron Ore: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][4]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by emergencies, raw materials drag down finished products [2][7]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: With tightened demand - side expectations, they will have wide - range oscillations [2][11]. - Coke: Disturbed by downstream accidents, it will oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - Coking Coal: Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - Steam Coal: Market sentiment is weak, and prices will have a short - term weak adjustment [2][19]. - Logs: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price Movements: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 18.0 yuan/ton (-2.22%). Imported and domestic ore spot prices also declined. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - News: On January 19, 2026, the central bank lowered the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Movements: RB2605 closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.04%); HC2605 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.75%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Some spreads changed [7]. - News: On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Baogang Plate Mill. Steel production and inventory data for December 2025 were released, and export license management was implemented for some steel products [8][9]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - Price Movements: Futures and spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide declined. There were changes in various spreads [12]. - News: In December 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Some steel companies' procurement prices for silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide were announced [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price Movements: JM2605 closed at 1,174.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.3%); J2605 closed at 1,721 yuan/ton, up 0.2%. Spot prices were mostly stable, and some spreads changed [15]. - News: On January 19, the CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal online auction had a low failure rate and rising prices [15]. Steam Coal - Price Movements: Domestic and overseas prices, as well as long - term agreement prices, showed a downward trend [19]. - News: In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, coal imports increased significantly, and Indonesia's coal production quota is expected to tighten in 2026 [20]. Logs - Price Movements: Futures contract prices declined, and trading volume and open interest changed. Spot prices were mostly stable [22]. - News: China's December 2025 RatingDog composite PMI exceeded the boom - bust line [24].