原油：耐心观望，谨防地缘风险反复

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report suggests patience and caution in the crude oil market, warning of potential geopolitical risks. It also presents the latest prices of international crude oil futures and analyzes the arbitrage situations and market supply - demand in different regions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day. ICE Brent crude futures 03 contract dropped $0.19/barrel, a - 0.30% decline, to $63.94/barrel. SC2603 crude oil futures fell $2.30, a 0.52% decrease, to $440.30/barrel [1]. Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexico Gulf: The arbitrage windows for various crude oils against WTI MEH or Mars are mostly closed due to factors like sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and high freight costs [2]. - Atlantic: Some crude oils have limited arbitrage space, while others like Saudi and Russian crude oils have open arbitrage opportunities, reflecting different supply - demand situations [4]. - North - Western Europe: The arbitrage windows for some US and African crude oils against Forties are open, indicating strong demand for light crude in the region [6]. - Mediterranean: Most crude oils cannot compete with Russian Urals crude, with closed arbitrage windows due to supply surpluses and high freight costs [7]. - Asia: Most crude oils face challenges in the Asian market against ESPO or Dubai, except for Ecuadorian heavy crude which has an open arbitrage window [8]. Key Market News - An Indian company is considering buying Venezuelan oil and stopping Russian oil imports to comply with Western sanctions. - Israel's prime minister warns of a strong response if Iran attacks. - Iran says the Internet will return to normal this week. - December oil exports via the CPC decreased from 509 million tons in November to 398 million tons. - China's December 2025 crude oil production was 17.8 million tons, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase; the annual output was 216.05 million tons, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [11]. Trend Intensity The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [10].