国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260120

Report Overview - Report Date: January 20, 2026 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Indonesian statements have repeatedly disrupted market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions in the ore end, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the price center [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Downstream purchasing has cooled down, and the price is oscillating at a high level [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Production cuts by upstream producers have disrupted the market, causing the futures price to rebound [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the impact of market news [2][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 142,320 yuan, with a change of 970 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 949,372 lots, a decrease of 375,848 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,305 yuan, up 30 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 375,328 lots, a decrease of 124,971 lots from T - 1 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for certain nickel - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce and Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products. Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore and adjust the nickel production quota [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 147,260 yuan, up 17,280 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 329,126 lots, a decrease of 262,397 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2605 basis was 3,740 yuan, a decrease of 8,060 yuan from T - 1 [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 151,665 yuan/ton, down 7,812 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Hunan Yueneng plans to raise up to 47.88 billion yuan for energy - storage battery cathode material production capacity construction [10][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,845 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 391,114 lots, an increase of 109,861 lots from T - 1. For the PS2605 contract, the closing price was 50,505 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 12,235 lots, a decrease of 9,482 lots from T - 1 [13]. - Macro and Industry News: TCL Zhonghuan plans to acquire all or part of the shares of Yidao New Energy, but the investment is still in the planning stage [13][15]. 4. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - Stainless Steel: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. - Industrial Silicon: 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. - Polysilicon: 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15].