期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260120

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The gold market is affected by the escalation of the US - EU tariff war, with gold prices rising steadily and a recommendation to go long on gold. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. - In the base metals market, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short - term; alumina prices are likely to be weak and volatile; zinc and lead are recommended to be sold on rallies [2]. - In the industrial silicon market, the price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices is an option. For lithium carbonate, due to a decline in market risk appetite, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom; corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range; oils and fats are expected to be volatile; sugar futures are recommended to be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton is recommended to be observed; eggs and hogs' futures prices are expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; PVC is recommended for a reverse spread strategy; methanol is expected to rise in the near future; glass is recommended to wait and see or buy glass and short - sell soda ash; PP is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and short - sold at high prices in the medium - term; crude oil is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to be volatile in the short - term and long positions can be taken at low prices in the medium - term; soda ash is recommended to buy glass and short - sell soda ash [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metals rose. London gold exceeded $4600 per ounce, and London silver reached $93 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The US - EU tariff war has escalated. The EU will hold an emergency summit. German Chancellor Merz said the EU would respond cautiously. Powell will support Fed Governor Cook. Domestic gold ETFs had a significant inflow of 2.2 tons. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1123.8 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 100.0 tons. SPDR gold ETF holdings remained at 1085.7 tons. COMEX silver inventory remained at 13346 tons, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 9.6 tons to 617.7 tons. iShares silver ETF holdings remained at 16073 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 161 tons to 612 tons last week. London's silver inventory increased from 27183 tons to 27814 tons at the end of December. India imported about 750 tons of silver in November [1]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the escalation of the tariff war and the steady rise of gold prices, it is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and inventory adjustments, cautious participation is advised [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.69% to 24090 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 175 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 3138 US dollars/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the macro - sentiment being mixed and traditional aluminum demand being weak at high prices, the market sentiment has cooled slightly. It is expected that the price will remain high and volatile in the short - term [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.65% to 2733 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The increasing inventory intensifies the short - selling sentiment. Coupled with the decline in bauxite prices, the cost support continues to decline. It is expected that the price will be weak and volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [2]. Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On January 19, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24450 yuan/ton and 17185 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of +300 and +290 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 24450 yuan/ton and - 17185 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 34.8 and - 44.18 US dollars/ton respectively. Zinc's seven - region inventory on January 19 was 12.2 million tons, an increase of 0.36 million tons compared with January 15. Lead's five - region inventory on January 19 was 3.41 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons compared with January 15 [2]. - Fundamentals: In the zinc market, the macro - sentiment pushed zinc prices to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season. The operating rates of galvanizing and die - casting have declined, and downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices. The supply has increased significantly, the processing fees have jumped, and the seven - region zinc ingot social inventory has increased, but the low LME inventory provides support. In the lead market, the domestic lead ingot inventory has increased, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries has weakened, downstream procurement is cautious, and the spot discount has widened. It is expected that lead prices will decline relatively [2]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated upward throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 8845 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.79%. The trading volume decreased by 3702 lots to 235,000 lots. The funds invested in the variety increased by 0.06 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 288 lots to 11571 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared with last week, mainly due to the decrease in Sichuan. The social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution. The polysilicon production in January is expected to decline to 100,000 tons. The organic silicon industry is holding up prices, and the weekly production has continued to decrease slightly. The operating rate of aluminum alloy has remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, there is an orange weather warning in the northwest and rumors of production cuts on the supply side this week, and the production cut expectations of polysilicon and organic silicon on the demand side still exist. The market is more concerned about the actual production cuts of large factories this week. It is rumored that the variety will turn to inventory reduction. The price is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton, and short - selling at high prices with a light position can be considered [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1060 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 0.73% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 2040 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 45 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. The SMM electric carbon price was 151,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7000 yuan/ton. The morning price of high - quality lithium carbonate by Mysteel was 146,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10550 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the weekly production was 22605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. The production in December was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. SMM expects the supply in January to be 97970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. On the demand side, the planned production of lithium iron phosphate in January is expected to be 363,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.0%; the planned production of ternary materials in January is expected to be 78,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. In terms of inventory, it is expected to maintain a tight balance in January due to rush exports. The sample inventory was 109600 tons, a decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelting link had an inventory increase of 1345 tons, the downstream link had an inventory decrease of 888 tons, and the trader link had an inventory decrease of 720 tons. The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,698 lots, an increase of 240 lots. In terms of funds, the short - term risk appetite in the market has decreased, and the invested funds have flowed out significantly to 26.77 billion yuan, an increase of 120 million yuan [3]. - Trading Strategy: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily limit range of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin ratio will be increased. Currently, the market risk appetite has decreased, the long - buying sentiment has declined, and there is significant downward pressure on the price, with relatively large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Monday morning, it opened flat and fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The main 05 contract closed at 50505 yuan/ton, an increase of 305 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.61%. The trading volume decreased by 1649 lots to 44,571 lots. The funds invested in the variety decreased by 0.74 billion yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4560 lots [3]. - Fundamentals: In the spot market this week, downstream buyers are in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, the weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the planned production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the planned production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products on the 9th has a certain support for component exports during the window period, and the demand side is expected to be stable during the off - season [3]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event interview, the market has fully priced in this negative news. The near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the emotional impact brought by the subsequent feedback of the industry association on this interview event [3]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The CBOT soybean market was closed overnight [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is loose, and there is a large supply expectation in South America in the long - term, and the early harvest has begun. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports have improved marginally. In general, the global supply and demand is expected to be loose [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are also suppressed by the large supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the amount of state - owned soybean sales and customs clearances [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing areas continued to rise, and the port price declined slightly [5]. - Fundamentals: Currently, more than half of the grain has been sold, and the selling pressure is not large. Farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices. The inventories of the north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The northeast deep - processing enterprises are highly motivated to build inventories. It is expected that the short - term spot price will be strong. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market changed little yesterday [5]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports have improved month - on - month. The high - frequency ITS data shows that Malaysia's exports from January 1 to 15 increased by 18% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term supply is loose, and there will be weak seasonal production reduction in the long - term [5]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are expected to be volatile. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [5]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The basis between the Nanning spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 62 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after duty - paid was 407 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price has dropped significantly due to the pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will continue until February, and then the impact of Brazilian sugarcane growth and the sugar - alcohol price difference on Brazil's next - season production should be observed. Currently, it is still in a volatile pattern. From a domestic perspective, the overall production and sales progress this year is slow, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production. Under the double pressure of imported and domestic sugar, sugar will follow the fundamental logic after the macro - sentiment cools down [5]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to short - sell, and call options can be sold [5]. Cotton - Market Performance: The ICE US cotton futures price fluctuated slightly overnight, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [5]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's CCI started selling cotton in the 25/26 season, and about 114,000 bales were sold on the first day. Brazil exported 192,300 tons of cotton in the first three weeks of January, with an average daily export volume of 17,500 tons, a 7% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in January of last year. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price started to fluctuate slightly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0% [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a price range of 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [5]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [5]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production has decreased, but the pace of capacity reduction has slowed down. As the egg price rises, the willingness of producers to sell has increased, the arrival volume in the sales areas has increased, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased, and the room for further price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline of the egg price after the stocking period ends [5]. - Trading Strategy: The room for further increase in the spot price is limited, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Hogs - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased in the north and increased in the south [5]. - Fundamentals: The hog slaughter volume in January is expected to be low at the beginning and high at the end. The demand is stable in the short - term and will gradually increase at the end of the month. The short - term supply pressure is not large, and the high demand supports the hog price. After the impact of snowfall ends, the hog price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm recently [5]. - Trading Strategy: After the impact of snowfall ends, the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract declined slightly yesterday. The low - price spot